THURSDAY AM RADAR – FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Thursday morning radar shows heavy showers and thunderstorms covering much of central and eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin and north central Iowa. The rest of the Plains, the Midwest and the Delta regions are dry.
WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS
Temperatures remain seasonal for early August over most of the Plains and the Midwest. 80s were common over all of Midwest into KY, MO, ARK, ND, SD, most of NEB, all of KS, OK, into western TX and eastern COL … 90s were common of the rest of TX, eastern WT/ MT and over Gulf Coast states.
The significant thunderstorm cluster which moved through the Dakotas and Minnesota over the last 18 hours has given many areas of the Dakotas as well as Minnesota some moderate to significant rain. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm with 70% coverage fell over central and eastern portions of North Dakota …northeast portions of South Dakota and much of central Minnesota. There are also similar rainfall amounts and isolated bands over south central and southwest Nebraska and northwest Iowa with the coverage in these areas about 40%. There was also some very light widely scattered activity over portions of Kentucky and Ohio. Finally southeastern Texas and Louisiana saw some moderate rain with amounts of 0.5-2.0″/12-50mm with 50% coverage.
1-5 DAY – The model agreement continues to be quite strong in the 6 to 10 day and in the 11 to 15 day but the short term forecast over the next 5 days still has some uncertainty and variability in it. This is rather unusual since typically it is the extended forecasts which have more uncertainty.
For example over the next 5 days the operational GFS model has widespread 0.5-2.0″/12-50mm rains covering northern Illinois, most of Wisconsin …central and southern Minnesota …most of Iowa with 60% coverage. It has a second area of significant rain over eastern Kansas …the eastern half of Oklahoma …most of Missouri and the northern half of Arkansas …into Tennessee and Kentucky. Rainfall amounts in the second area range from 1 -5″/25-125mm with the heaviest rains clearly over southeastern Kansas …and northeastern third of Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. There are some gaps and rainfall shield over portions of the WCB and the ECB.
The European model on the other hand is not quite as wet. It has large gaps in the rainfall coverage over 70% of Iowa … northern Illinois … southern Wisconsin …the northern half of Indiana …and northwest Ohio.
The European model has two bands of significant rain. One area is located over central Minnesota — where it is currently raining — which extends into central and northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan with rainfall amounts of 1-3″/ 25-75mm. The second or southern area extends from eastern Oklahoma and Kansas into Missouri, Arkansas, the southern half of Illinois and southern Indiana and most of Ohio. Rainfall amounts in these areas is also 1 -3″/ 25-75mm but the coverage is only about 50%.
6-10 DAY – All models show significant widespread heavy rain in the 6 to 10 day covering much of the central and lower Plains … across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley and into lower portions of the Midwest (by that we mean areas south of I- 70 and close to the Ohio River). There is some difference as to which areas will see the heaviest rains but the overall trend is quite strong on the models this morning.
In this case we like the European model and the European ensemble and it shows an impressive area of 2-8″/50-200mm rains over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as well as all of Oklahoma …northern half Arkansas …the southern third of Missouri …all of Tennessee and Kentucky …with lighter rain amounts into the Carolinas …Virginia and West Virginia …as well as Georgia …Alabama and Mississippi.
These rains on the European model do not reach as far north as Interstate 70 so most of the Midwest on the European model as well as the central and upper Plains is DRY in the 6-10 DAY. This is a shift and a change from yesterday because for the Midwest the European model and European ensemble IS drier.
The GFS model is somewhat similar but it has its heaviest rains over Virginia …the Carolinas …Kentucky …Tennessee and northern Georgia with a secondary area of 2″/50mm rains or greater over north Texas… most of Oklahoma and Arkansas. For the Midwest the GFS and GFS ensemble has lighter rains as far north as Interstate 80 but these rains are generally under 1″/25mm .
11-15 DAY – The model agreement is very strong in the 11 to 15 day. They show significant rains over much of the lower Plains …the Delta …the Gulf Coast states and the Southeastern states into Pennsylvania, New York State and New Jersey. Most of the Midwest as well as the central & upper Plains see light rains with amounts under 0.75″/20mm. This is NOT a change for the data suggest the dates of things are fairly consistent in the 11 to 15 day
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