MID MORNING RADAR — LINK TO FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Thursday morning radar shows not a lot of activity. 95% Midwest is completely dry & 90% of the Plains. There is some widely scattered showers over northeast IA into southwestern & central WI in a thin band & a 2ND area of light to moderate showers over sw KS which extends down into the Texas panhandle.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY JUNE 5
70s over ILL, east WI, MI, IND, OH, KY, east TN… 80s in all other portions of the Midwest & Plains… a few 90s over sw TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 cdt JUNE 8
0.25-1.50″/6-38mm over 40% of MN and 60% of ne 25% of COL. All other areas completely dry.
1-5 DAY = There is strong model agreement as to what the data shows all the next 5 days. Temperatures greater than 95° with some 100f/35c + readings develop on Friday over the Dakotas & TX which expand into all of the Plains & a good portion of the WCB on Saturday, Sunday, Monday into Tuesday. 80% of the Midwest is completely rain free all the next 5 days. Both models show significant rains of 1-3″/25-75mm over east central MN into nw WI Sunday into Monday. The European model has these rains a little further to the north than the GFS but the differences here in how the models handle these rains are not significant.
6-10 DAY = big difference in the weather models here. The European is substantially drier than the GFS. The GFS model has widespread 0.5-1.75″ 12-45mm over 70% of KY, OH, IND, ILL & 60% coverage over MO, IA & east KS. The European is VASTLY different showing large areas of dry conditions over most of the Midwest with moderate rains over KY, TN, south MO, ARK, OK and the Gulf coast states. The European also has significant rains over north MN, northern ND and over south central Canada. There are significant differences in the 6-10 day Ensembles as well with the GFS showing significant rains up to 2.5-3.0″ 60-75mm over MO, southern IA and eastern KS which the European does not have.
11-15 DAY = looks rather ordinary. All models show widespread 0.5-1.5″/12-38mm rains over most of the Midwest which is rather ordinary rainfall for 5 day interval. The Dakotas and NEB remain quite dry.