LATE DAY RADAR – CLICK HERE TO SEE FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
There are showers and weak storms over northeastern Nebraska and north central Iowa with about 30 to 40% coverage and widely scattered showers over northeast Wisconsin and south central Kansas. Moderate rain showers over Central Colorado.
1-5 DAY = The weather model agreement all the next 5 days is very strong between the GFS and the European operational models. Both models show a cluster of moderate to heavy rains between 0.75-3.0″ 20-75mm over central or southern portions of Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The rain is heavier over the GFS which shows a few small areas of rainfall amounts in the 4-5″ /100-125mm inch range. However as you can see the vast majority of the central Plains, the Dakotas, the lower Plains and the Midwest remain quite dry. The models also are quite hot and have not backed off the temperatures which will be building this weekend into early next week across much of the Plains and the WCB. The high resolution European model shows many areas in Iowa reaching between 95-104°f/ 35-40c on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. This includes areas such as Omaha, Des Moines and Grand Platte.
6-10 DAY = As I have already pointed out there are significant differences between the operational or regular GFS model and the European model with regard to the forecast for the 6-10 day timeframe. The GFS has a widespread general 0.75 -2.5″/20-60mm rain over much of the lower half of the WCB and ECB regions. This rain extends into Kentucky, Tennessee and into eastern portions of Oklahoma and Kansas with the rains actually up to 4-5″/ 100-125mm on the GFS model. This is actually quite consistent with what the GFS was showing early this morning and on the 6Z run. So while the consistency is there it does not mean anything with respect to getting the forecast right.
The European models dramatically different but it too is also consistent with its previous runs. The European model for this Thursday afternoon shows a nice area of moderate rains between 0.5-1.5″/12-38mm the entire Deep South as well as 50% of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky and Ohio. All other areas of the Plains and the Midwest are essentially dry or almost dry in the 6-10 day. Obviously these two rainfall forecasts are diametrically opposed to each other.
The situation is NOT helped in this case by the model ensembles. The GFS model ensemble shows widespread heavy rains over the heart of the WCB with rainfall amounts 1-3″/25-75mm in portions of eastern Kansas … northwest Missouri … most of Iowa … Minnesota and Wisconsin with lighter rain amounts across entire ECB into the Tennessee Valley. The EURO ensembles shows nothing like that. It has some areas of moderate rains over Missouri and eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma but the heart of the WCB and the ECB sees rainfall amounts under 0.75″/20mm for the 6-10 day.
11-15 DAY= In the 11 to 15 day the European is again much drier over all the Midwest and all of the Plains while the GFS model shows areas of moderate rain over 60 to 70% of the Midwest
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 6-10 DAY
The entire eastern half of the country is in the above normal rainfall with a small area of much above normal rainfall over the Tennessee Valley. The WCB is split in half with the eastern portions in the above normal rainfall area while the western portions are in the near normal rainfall area. Below normal rainfall area is over all the Dakotas, southern Nebraska and the Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. With respect to temperatures all the Midwest as well as the Middle Atlantic region and New England is in the above or much above normal temperature area and this is also the case for California and Nevada. The central and upper Plains and northern Rockies are in the below normal temperature area.
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 8-14 DAY
Again the entire eastern half of the country is in the above normal rainfall area and this also extends into the lower Plains. The WCB is mostly in the near normal rainfall area while the central and upper plains and northern Rockies are in the below normal rainfall area. With respect to temperatures the entire East Coast as well as the ECB and the entire West Coast and including the Rockies and the southwestern states and the Pacific Northwest are in the above normal temperature area. The Delta and the central Plains into the WCB regions are in the near normal temperature area.
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