Commentary: The soybeans witnessed a lower trade today. The market is under pressure for a couple reasons. The overall demand remains weak for exports. This is due to the Brazilian exports of approx 13 mmt during March, a record. The main destination is China. The USDA numbers yesterday showed a larger carry than anticipated. This could prove important, and could …
Soy Update
Commentary: The USDA released the stocks and acreage estimates today for March. The soy stocks came in at 2.253 billion. This was larger than anticipated. The acreage came in at 83.5 mil acres. This was smaller than anticipated by approx 1 million acres, but still up from 19 by 7.4 million acres. As mentioned over the last couple of days, …
Soy Commentary
Commentary: The soy has been led higher by the old crop. Both beans and meal have been the leaders while the oil share has lost approx 6% in the past weeks. The catalyst for the strength has been concern over the recent weather in South America that has caused reductions in crop size. In addition, for meal, concerns due to …
AG TIME
The soy quiet but lower. The tariffs are slated to hit more Chinese goods. The African swine fever continues to quietly spread. The market, I believe, will need to deal with the latter for some time. It is there to stay until eradicated. The setup in China makes the spread easy. I remain bearish soy. However, the market has fallen …
AG TIME – Marking Time Now
The soy markets have corrected a bit here with meal leading the way. The USDA report Wednesday should provide a couple things. 1) confirmation of a larger carry. 2) confirmation of a weakening demand base. The current estimates have cut China’s demand back. It is important in my opinion to understand that the numbers in and of themselves by all …
Tasks at Hand
The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international …
AG TIME – What is Going on?
The meal rallied today. The thought of Argentina putting an export tax on beans is pushing meal. This to me does not make sense. The US harvest is upon us and the size of the crop will allow Argentina, and any one else for that matter, to buy beans, import and crush for profit. The world is awash with a …
AG TIME – Enjoy the Weekend
The markets in general (row crop) witnessed some strength. Nothing goes straight up or down. The bean market was due a bit of a bounce in my opinion. The sales remain strong given the discounts to South America. In addition, as I mentioned yesterday, the Argentinian currency situation and the Brazilian sales to date may force the Chinese back to …
AG TIME – Same Tunes Different Day
The soy down yet again. The commentary here sounds like the same tune over again. The weather has been good here towards the end of the growing season. The conditions are hanging at a high level even with an advanced crop. Will the government add bushels as the pro farmer crop tour saw? Remains to be seen. A saying “big …
AG TIME – A Tale of Two Cities
The soy is experiencing a quiet day overall. The market is digesting the recent break and perhaps consolidating for a minute. The weather looks conducive to bringing home a very large soybean crop. The reality is that we have priced in a realistic price relative to the historic numbers. My contention is that the prices are supposed to move to …