Commentary: The USDA released soy estimates today. The old crop stocks were at 580 million bu. Not overly friendly. At present however the US has moved into the prime supplier to the world given the lack of ARG exports, and the Brazilian having exported a lot of late. The currency is also a consideration. These facts can negate the bearish old crop a bit. The new crop was estimated at 405 mil bu. This is not overly bearish. The market may want to guarantee sales as well as acreage. This could allow a rally to or above 9.00. This level would represent value and should spark hedging. In addition the deferred crush margins offer reason for the market to bid for beans to crush to capture the margin. The global numbers are ample in both old and new crop. This will remain the case unless an issue arises in the southern hemisphere.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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