ARP HERE, There continues to be chaos around the globe due to uncertainty regarding the currency relationships. There has been much movement in the currency pairs over the last 6 months. CURRENCY The dollar 95.55 nl(neckline) rejected. This could be a possible top in my opinion. MEATS It is one of my thoughts. Don’t be afraid to fade public opinion. …
AG TIME – No fun for bulls or bears
The soy was all over the place today. Indecision, uncertainty, all create a difficult environment. The flow of continual information at times can be distracting. When I look at the charts, this has been very difficult, unless a short term view is used. Then it is still difficult. Enough of the complaints already. The market appears to be focused on …
AG TIME
There is much going on daily creating back and forth type trade. The soy broke off highs today because the Tariff concerns are still there. Talk of 25% being implemented IF the govt and china don’t work out their issues. There will be a point when the market needs to focus on the fundamentals. The medium term and long term …
AG TIME – IT MAY PAY TO BE CONTRARIAN
The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
Farmers see KC wheat explode 50c
Good Mid-week Speculators, First it’s wild how when I take time off over decades that markets tend to move vertically (good, fast)and here we had end-of-month buying in KC wheat now up what? 50 cents from last week low in that overnight, down 1% cleaning as much as the HFT rats could stop out. KC $7.00? why not? But rocky soon. …
The Alpha of Seasonal Commodity Trading – Managed Futures
I am not very old, but I have been trading for long enough to have my own opinion about traders and trading. We all know that it is a difficult business, earning money in these markets is very challenging and very few traders suceed in the long run. No only do traders need to have discipline and strong fundamentals, but …
The Grain Report – 2/20/2017
March corn rallied to new highs last week, but ultimately settled the week 6 cents lower. There wasn’t any fundamental news event that triggered the late week fall, but rather the decline was a function of reduced speculative buying. Improving South American weather and a U.S. corn stocks/use ratio of 15-16% hardly argues for a net long fund position in …
The Grain Report
Trend and Index following funds bid up beans, corn, and wheat prices throughout the week with both wheat and corn reaching their best levels since last summer. Beans finished the week 33 cents higher, corn gained 9 cents while wheat finished the week up 19 cents. Beans opened the week higher rallying off of weather concerns of too much rain …