The soy complex was weak today. The beans and meal both were under some pressure. There was a correction in the oilshare and this was the main catalyst. The bean oil stocks came in lower than anticipated. It is to early to say if the meal has put in a high. The technical picture does not indicate it has. The …
AG TIME
The story remains the same. The meal is leading the soy complex while the large crush pace pressures the bean oil. The oilshare continues to decline at 27.2%. In addition, the meal relative to beans is approaching historic highs. The question is what price either shuts down demand, although not really the issue in my opinion. Or offers other price …
AG TIME
There is not much to comment on with respect to today’s activity. The feature remains meal strength relative to the complex. I would venture to say that without meal strength beans would be under pressure. The funds remain very long. The concerns over the rosario port will be yet another reason to push meal higher. The weather in the Delta …
Ag – Where are we now?
The USDA gave us the report. Plenty of beans domestically. Now the debate, where is Argentina? Truly, it means little. The world has 26-28 mmt more than 2.5 years ago. It is ok to try to figure all this out. I would like to say, it is time to look at the other side of the coin. We are producing …
AG – BIG MONTH
SOY COMPLEX This may prove to be a big month for AG moves. Opportunity and Risk everywhere. The WASDE report this week will put the South American numbers in perspective. This is a key factor going forward. The market may well have dialed in a smaller ARG crop than we will see this week. If this is the case and …
March Ag Where do we go from here.
SOY COMPLEX Today was a fairly uneventful day when the dust settled. When we leave the month of March we will have a few answers to this puzzle. The USDA will release WASDE this Thursday and we will look at the USDA numbers. In play are the US carry and the production out of South America. The big question is …
Farmers see KC wheat explode 50c
Good Mid-week Speculators, First it’s wild how when I take time off over decades that markets tend to move vertically (good, fast)and here we had end-of-month buying in KC wheat now up what? 50 cents from last week low in that overnight, down 1% cleaning as much as the HFT rats could stop out. KC $7.00? why not? But rocky soon. …
Ag outlook, technical levels
SOY COMPLEX The Beans started higher again, fueled by meal. The rally stalled and nominal gains on the day were recorded. The weather in Arg remains friendly as rain has yet to materialize in a meaningful fashion. A few small amounts here and there. This rally has extended itself and seems to be stalling. The impetus is lacking to turn. …
AG – Weather Market
SOY COMPLEX The markets are keenly focused on weather at this point. We have dialed in the recent Argentinian drawdown. However, according to most analysts, further dryness is not dialed in. This may be the case. Going home this weekend it appears that Argentina will remain mostly dry. The real question now is will the US and Brazil make up the …
Ag markets on the move
The Soy Complex: The Soy Complex looks to start higher tonight. The soy has been and will be led by meal. The weather in Argentina has participants worried that the global supply of meal will be hurt given the weather scenario. This is overblown, but the market will rally until a comfort from rain is received. The reality in my …