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Commentary
December corn took out yesterday’s low and closed at a new 3 1/2-month low as downside pressure continued from hedgers and speculative fund liquidation. Additional pressure came from the potential for trilateral Black Sea peace talks next month and reports Russia is reviewing proposals from several countries to secure Black Sea shipping. That said I will only believe such news until I see hard evidence that this conflict will deescalate. Until then it’s just noise. However, selling pressure ensued as the expected big push in harvest last week played out as expected. US corn harvest is 60% complete, 1% above the average trade estimate. Illinois saw 11% increase on the week. Iowa saw a 21% increase on the week, and Nebraska saw an 18% increase on the week. Iowa and Nebraska are still below the 5-year average for harvest at this time of the year. Funds were actively selling the corn after the first hour of the day session today as they downsize their net long under a plethora of evidence that the corn crop is verified. Big difference from the opinions from early September when yields were projected at 177-178. Next level for December corn or where support is, comes in at 442 (TL) and 440, which represents unchanged on the year. A close under and its Katy bar the door to 425, the June 30th quarterly report day low. Resistance is the 100-week moving average at 453 and then the 50-week moving average at 460. A close over both is needed to turn the market higher in my opinion. Month end is Friday, with harvest wrapping up next week for many but not all. Once complete we will look to buy the Board.
Trade Ideas-N/A
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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