A two sided trade today in beans. The acreage is the next important aspect. The weather has been very ideal. Although it is important to note that the wet weather may be causing some concerns in some areas. This may be nothing in the long run. There is a suggestion of some heat coming in. This will be monitored closely. …
AG TIME – Bear on the Move
The soy was led lower by beans and meal today. After review of the USDA report yesterday. I must say that I was not bullish the bean numbers. To the contrary. I see some real potential mistakes. First, it is probable that the USDA has over stated the exports by 50-100 mil bu. I don’t buy the story the Chinese …
AG TIME
The soy was weak, yet again led by the meal market. The weather has been good on the surface with plenty of moisture received through key growing regions of the belt. We now are back at support in the beans at 950. The USDA will release a supply and demand tomorrow, then the acreage at the end of the month. …
AG TIME – Summer Market
The soy was down nominal again today. The bean exports are lagging. The Chinese are buying Brazilian. The real has moved into a position that makes it difficult to not sell into the export arena. All aspects are working against the beans at present. This trend should continue and can open the door for further declines. As I have stated, …
AG TIME
There is much going on daily creating back and forth type trade. The soy broke off highs today because the Tariff concerns are still there. Talk of 25% being implemented IF the govt and china don’t work out their issues. There will be a point when the market needs to focus on the fundamentals. The medium term and long term …
AG TIME OBJECTS IN MOTION
The soy complex witnessed liquidation. More than this though, the markets are looking at the fundamentals. The Chinese purchases, the currency differences, etc, etc, and saying this price may be way too high. The market I want to watch now is meal. Short term sells are here. The question now with this crush pace? How does meal do. I believe …
AG TIME – BIG CHANGES COMING ?
Let’s start with the outside markets. The Dollar specifically. The dollar is exhibiting strength. This strength should continue. This has a profound effect on the ag sector. Especially beans at present. It is no secret I am bearish the soy. The markets are oversupplied. And this will continue. It is my belief the meal too is overvalued and the market …
AG TIME – WISHING ON A STAR
The beans reached the $10.00 level and are bouncing because, because, oh yes, yes, the Chinese are speaking with the US! The break this past few weeks has less to do with the news and more to do with the reality of the market. The government has demand overstated. The bean sales are some 200 million less. Not because of …
AG TIME – IT MAY PAY TO BE CONTRARIAN
The USDA released their report. The screams of bullishness. It is important to separate the beans from corn here, because I feel much differently about them. The USDA added to the global carry, now 92 mmt. Huge. The new crop is reduced to 87 mmt. I have some issues with this and really am questioning the reasoning behind this. The …
AG TIME MACRO CHANGES AHEAD ?
The beans and meal were under sincere pressure all session. The Chinese US trade conflict is cited as the reason. Perhaps it is the catalyst. However, it is my contention that there are other considerations afoot. The domestic carry has been growing, and will continue. The global supply is 20-25 mmt larger than 2 years ago. This is not bullish. …