The Beans rebounded today. Actually unbelievable in my opinion. Now the carry is 750 million plus. The global numbers are 105 mmt plus. All thoughts we have spoken about. The Chinese demand is changing. These are long term shifts. The beans are important, but China will buy alternative proteins – that is already underway. The global protein is on the …
AG TIME – Awaiting the Report Friday
The beans were up led by meal. The talk du jour was the Chinese prices are higher over concern about a lack of supply. A couple perceptions that I am working through. The Chinese bean imports in July are less than anticipated. Fact, they are trailing last year this time by 2mmt. Demand gone is gone forever. It goes to …
AG TIME – Do we Have Separation?
The soy complex under pressure. The rhetoric will have us believe it is due to the tariff situation. Perhaps. However, there is much to consider. The global soy production is going up. The demand is waning. The title do we have separation refers to the bean corn relationship. Perhaps a sea change. It is my belief the global shift has …
Cattle – Wall of Demand?
Good Day Producers and Speculators, The comments below are all my opinions. If you are trading always use a risk stop or the risk can become uncontrollable. These are volatile markets. So let’s recap as we assess the impact of when markets hit these olive extreme’s like 3 weeks ago down by previous months lows. We were looking for a monthly reversal up to buy KWU 4.73, CZ …
AG TIME – Much to Think About
There are many currents running now. The trade wars have given the market much to consider. It is my belief the whole thing will be solved before anything becomes active regarding the US Chinese threats. However, it is my belief the US will have won the concessions it requests. In the mean time, the Chinese economy is showing signs of …
AG TIME – Focus on the Numbers
The markets are down in the soy. I am tired of talking about the rhetoric. It is my belief we need to focus on the numbers and that should over the long run have an impact on the price. Looking at the reality of the bean market, the USDA has estimated a 580 mil bu carryover (RECORD). The USDA will …
AG TIME – Is it Time?
The beans were up but did not follow through. The condition ratings were unchanged. I am noticing some structural things to be aware of. The meal, although higher, the bear spreads are working again. This may be important. Also the oil spreads are attempting to stabilize. It will be important to watch the Indian monsoons. It is my belief we …
AG TIME – What’s Next?
The beans continued the rally. The EU announcement is viewed as positive. The weather may offer some dry areas. Also, there is some speculation that perhaps the Chinese will be forced to settle. Ultimately I believe that is the case, however, it may take a bit of pain first. In the meantime, it is my contention that there are some …
AG TIME – And Now We Wait
The Soy markets are biding time now. The beans have bounced a bit. This could continue with a further reduction in ratings. The bean ratings, like corn, are in a high end of the condition ratings from a historic perspective. My personal upside potential without a real problem is 865-880 basis Aug. For the record that should push Nov 19 …
AG TIME – Macro changes
The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …