The USDA gave us the report. Plenty of beans domestically. Now the debate, where is Argentina? Truly, it means little. The world has 26-28 mmt more than 2.5 years ago. It is ok to try to figure all this out. I would like to say, it is time to look at the other side of the coin. We are producing …
AG – BIG MONTH
SOY COMPLEX This may prove to be a big month for AG moves. Opportunity and Risk everywhere. The WASDE report this week will put the South American numbers in perspective. This is a key factor going forward. The market may well have dialed in a smaller ARG crop than we will see this week. If this is the case and …
March Ag Where do we go from here.
SOY COMPLEX Today was a fairly uneventful day when the dust settled. When we leave the month of March we will have a few answers to this puzzle. The USDA will release WASDE this Thursday and we will look at the USDA numbers. In play are the US carry and the production out of South America. The big question is …
Farmers see KC wheat explode 50c
Good Mid-week Speculators, First it’s wild how when I take time off over decades that markets tend to move vertically (good, fast)and here we had end-of-month buying in KC wheat now up what? 50 cents from last week low in that overnight, down 1% cleaning as much as the HFT rats could stop out. KC $7.00? why not? But rocky soon. …
Ag outlook, technical levels
SOY COMPLEX The Beans started higher again, fueled by meal. The rally stalled and nominal gains on the day were recorded. The weather in Arg remains friendly as rain has yet to materialize in a meaningful fashion. A few small amounts here and there. This rally has extended itself and seems to be stalling. The impetus is lacking to turn. …
AG – Weather Market
SOY COMPLEX The markets are keenly focused on weather at this point. We have dialed in the recent Argentinian drawdown. However, according to most analysts, further dryness is not dialed in. This may be the case. Going home this weekend it appears that Argentina will remain mostly dry. The real question now is will the US and Brazil make up the …
Ag markets on the move
The Soy Complex: The Soy Complex looks to start higher tonight. The soy has been and will be led by meal. The weather in Argentina has participants worried that the global supply of meal will be hurt given the weather scenario. This is overblown, but the market will rally until a comfort from rain is received. The reality in my …
Ag reaching targets ?
The Soy complex continues to work higher. The November contract traded as high as 1017 today. The target I have spoken of is 1015-1020. We have yet to reach the 1020 on this recent rally. Tomorrow may be the day. Anyway, I have said it is time to use this rally to make sales for new crop beans. It is possible …
AG Thoughts
A couple observations. The markets rally, participants get bullish. The market breaks, participants get bearish. The crowd is usually wrong. The articles I am reading all want a bull story in beans. This in my opinion makes little sense. Now, that doesn’t mean we won’t rally. The funds are short and if they cover we will head higher. The question I …
LIMIT UP LUMBER, BONDs meet Mr. Olive
Friday lumber was limit up. Usually we follow through to upside with certain trading floor rules that have not been around for a while. I chirp about these ahead of time. Hey Matt Rio, let’s chat? Why not, it’s good. I’m not talking about this too much because it is live but also due to my clients that must have …