SOY COMPLEX
This may prove to be a big month for AG moves. Opportunity and Risk everywhere. The WASDE report this week will put the South American numbers in perspective. This is a key factor going forward. The market may well have dialed in a smaller ARG crop than we will see this week. If this is the case and the Brazilian crop comes in larger, a significant move may be forthcoming. As I have said, look to take precautionary measures as a producer. Lock up some profit. On the board or at the elevator, your choice. There are structural issues here. The SA meal is currently 30-35 dollars per ton cheaper. The meal has been the upside leader. This will be a necessary aspect to go much higher. I have said for some time, the market has to go a long way to destroy the stock build up of late. In addition, eyeing the planted acres, the US should witness a meaningful bean acreage number that place bean acres above the corn. This is a rare occurance but may be signaling a domestic and global shift in sentiment. If this is the case it is important. The market is seperated by old and new here. The pipeline is amply supplied with beans at present. The new crop nov 18 is still at 1040 plus. This number is rich and producers please be mindful of the potential profit at this level. Again, perhaps we can go higher but if this level presents solid profit, lock some up.
CORN
The corn here is a market with a structural story that may potentially unfold. The weather issues globally have put us in a position to gain exports. The domestic acres may prove beneficial. There exists reason for optimism. It is my belief there could be a further move up this spring and summer if the correct things happen. As always, lock in some sure money and/or limit the downside with a defensive position that leaves the upside open.
I am watching the tech signals for a signal the upside move may have culminated.
Watch july nov beans, july dec meal, beans vs corn,
As I said yesterday, there are opportunites. For a free review or a conversation 800.993.5449 or
John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com