Soybeans–
Trump is expected to make a deal with China soon, a framework for a deal is said to be in place. Trump is meeting with Xi at the APEC Summit on Thursday. We could still see soybeans sell once a deal if confirmed, as there has been heavy buying on the likelihood of a deal being completed. If a deal is completed, there is also no guarantee that China will honor their end of the agreement and buy US soybeans. This is especially true because there is a short window before Brazil has a new soybean crop. However, this is what the soybean market has been waiting on for a long time. Soybeans traded as high as 1108, before fading the rest of the day and closing below 1100. The US still has a price advantage over Brazil. In Argentina, farmers are lobbying for lower export taxes. Soybean meal has now rallied 10 days in a row. Soybean meal is above the psychological resistance at 300. Soybean oil was weaker today, which makes long-term calls more attractive.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1095 (+10), high of 1108, low of 1083. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1106 (+11), high of 1118, low of 1093. Cash price is at 1033 (+25)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 306.5 (+8.3) high of 307.8, low of 297.5
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.26 (-0.51) high of 50.80, low of 49.88
Meal to Oil ratio (54.95% Meal – 45.05% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1070) 5-day, (1044) 20-day, (1049) 50-day, (1044) 100-day, (1044) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1082) 5-day, (1058) 20-day, (1064) 50-day, (1058) 100-day, (1052) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (296.2) 5-day, (282.5) 20-day, (284.1) 50-day, (286.8) 100-day, (299.8) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.45) 5-day, (50.64) 20-day, (51.28) 50-day, (52.43) 100-day, (49.40) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 431 3/4 (+3), high of 436, low of 427. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 446 (+1). Cash price is 416 (+5)
Corn is moving higher along with soybeans. Corn was getting ready for a breakout, which I’ve been writing about for months. Corn closed above the previous high for the move at 431 1/4. Today’s high was 436 1/4, this is the highest corn has traded since July. The next resistance for corn is 437 and then 442-445. The US has given Mexico an extension of a few more weeks before additional tariffs are added. Previously, the tariff deadline was set at November 1. Mexico continues to buy US corn, so it is likely a deal is completed before long. Harvest pace is estimated at 72% complete. Last year at this time, harvest was 81% complete. Exports continue to be strong. Exports for the week ending October 23, were 1.18 mt. Exports are 57.8% above last year and nearly 14% of the USDA’s forecast for new crop corn.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (427) 5-day, (420) 20-day, (419) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (436) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (452) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 529 (+3), with a high of 535, low of 524. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 545 (+3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 5-7 (+13). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 520 (+5).
Wheat has shot up fast, after 5 3/4 cent gain in the overnight session and more gains today. Open interest fell by 6000 contracts, which indicates short covering taking place. US winter wheat conditions are estimated 50% good/excellent versus last year. Russian exports prices are down $0.50 cents, compared to last week after the oil sanctions. Wheat exports are moving at a solid pace. Exports for the week ending October 23, were 258k mt, which is 46.8% of the USDA forecast and 19.5 % above last year.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (516) 5-day, (508) 20-day, (517) 50-day, (538) 100-day, (568) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (524) 20-day, (534) 50-day, (556) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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