Soybeans–
Trump’s meeting with China was successful. China has agreed to purchase 12 mmt for the current marketing year and 25 mmt over the next 3 marketing years. The APEC Summit also resulted in other countries agreeing to buy 19 mmt. Ahead of the meeting China bought 3 cargoes of domestic soybeans, but the total quantity was only 180k tons. Argentina’s oilseed workers are threatening to strike again, which offered support to soybean meal. Soybean meal is rallying hard, trading higher 12 days in a row. Even with a China deal in place, China trade is going to continue to be a story for the soybean market. Trump is expected to visit China in April and trade talks will resume again.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1091 (+11), high of 1101, low of 1057. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1115 (+10), high of 1123, low of 1083. Cash price is at 1047 (+2)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 315.6 (+6.9) high of 317.5, low of 304.5
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 49.65 (-0.51) high of 50.26, low of 49.21
Meal to Oil ratio (55.975% Meal – 44.025% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1088) 5-day, (1050) 20-day, (1051) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1044) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1099) 5-day, (1063) 20-day, (1065) 50-day, (1059) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (304.5) 5-day, (286.1) 20-day, (284.7) 50-day, (286.9) 100-day, (299.7) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.21) 5-day, (50.59) 20-day, (51.21) 50-day, (52.47) 100-day, (49.44) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 430 (-3), high of 437, low of 427. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 443 (-3). Cash price is 433 (+12)
Corn traded lower today likely in part due to the China meeting and because of profit taking as the end of the week approaches. China did not make any mention of buying US corn, despite the weather in China’s corn areas and their lack of feed grain imports this year. In South America, La Nina wetness could be a potential threat to Argentina’s corn crop in early ’26. Rabobank estimates Brazil’s corn plantings are 2.2% higher from a year ago. They have exports dropping 5% and production dropping 3.5%. Corn may pull back some the rest of the week, but corn has room to go higher based on its recent strength.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (429) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (420) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (436) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (451) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 524 (-8), with a high of 535, low of 520. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 540 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 513 (+3). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 513 (-9).
Wheat pulled back 9 cents in the overnight session and continued falling during today’s session. It’s no surprise that wheat had a sell-off today as fundamentals are still bearish. The rally was caused by strength in the other grains and short covering. US wheat is now more expensive than French and Russian wheat so exports may be lower in the near-term. As the sanctions on Russian oil persist Russia could see a slowdown in its exports, which would be supportive for prices. Solid rainfall in Ukraine, Russia, France, and Australia is weighing on the wheat market and preventing any further short covering.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (524) 5-day, (509) 20-day, (517) 50-day, (537) 100-day, (568) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (540) 5-day, (526) 20-day, (534) 50-day, (555) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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