Soybean Complex: A Look at What’s Next

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

July Soybeans

     After rejecting off inner resistance line mentioned in yesterday’s post soybeans continued retreat holding up at 926.0. Was that peak the termination of an intermediate iv wave now giving way to a v wave decline? Structure seems unclear at this point. I believe tomorrow will tell the story. Continued pressure looks to take out last weeks low at 925.4 sliding to 918-917. Any pullback here should be analyzed for non-impulsive characteristics which would in turn would be met with another wave of selling. If this were to unfold I’d expect weakness to extend to new lows following thru to the lower 890’s. A snap back that is able to hold above 937.0 looks to challenge inner resistance line coming in at 945.0. A press above reaches for +/- 960.

 

Soybean Meal

         Not a lot of clues visible to me in today’s price action. Any weakness slides to +/- 295-292. A hold below 294.0 will heavily lean on contract. This potentially sets up an unraveling to +/- 265.0. A rise from here sniffs out retracement zone between 305.7-306.5. A violation of 310 throws wave count to the curb. Extended upside targets +/- 316.

 

Soybean Oil

     As suggested in yesterday’s post oil seemed setup for a pullback. Channel line support was broken at 32.40 and price continued lower to finish just off inner support cross zone at 31.90-31.80. If contract cannot stabilize at this location I’d expect a slide to +/- 31.2. A violation of lows opens the gate for further declines targeting +/- 30.00-29.50. A rebound off support that is able to fortify 32.45 sets up further gains extending to channel high coming in at 33.60.