Soybean Complex: End of Week Summary

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

 Soybeans

      July soybeans are putting up a fight at previously defined cross zone support. A noble attempt indeed. However, the structure of this redound appears non-impulsive and corrective in nature. This would lead me to believe that it is unsustainable. First line of contention comes in at 928.2 to 929.0. A convergence of a channel line, fib retracement and 4th wave high of a lessor degree. Also of note, the distance traveled from lows to reach this resistance level would be in step with other rallies seen in the decline from 989.0. A rejection off this level would point to another impulsive wave in the direction of the major trend. Projections come in at lower 890’s. Need to monitor next week’s early action. As always wave structure can evolve and the outlook may change but until that happens I would consider this the most likely resolution.

 

Soybean Meal

          Meal holds and rebounds off support level mentioned earlier. Weekly candlestick establishes a hammer formation. A hold above 301.3 suggest further gains. Extended upside resistance comes in at 315 to 316. As of now I am still adhering to my long term outlook of declining prices.

Soybean Oil

        Oil continues to hold and close below support channel line at 31.70.  Continued selling pressure would target +/- 29.5 in the short term. A recovery that is able to fortify 31.70 would extend to +/- 33.00. The extent of this rally would be in harmony with other counter trend rallies occurring since the highs established at 38.50 in December of last year.