Soybean Complex: Assessing The Structure

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

Another sloppy session develops in the July soybeans. A typical description of a corrective counter trend move. The market should be setting up for another impulsive wave lower. This upcoming wave should commence with a minor 5 wave move. This should be closely monitored. As of now it appears unclear. If contract weakens and holds below 926.6 I would consider this the commencement of such. If prices are able to maintain this unimpressive advance they’ll be confronted with an up sloping channel line and pitchfork convergence zone between 926.25 and 927.25. A sign of an extreme should be confirmed with multi time frame divergence readings. Lower target zone come in at 902 to 895. I still hold to my previously mentioned long term outlook of lower prices to come. First projection rest at +/- 800 with final objective of +/- 750.

 

Soybean Meal

     A similar structure has unfolded in the July meal contract. In place is what appears to be a corrective counter trend move which should give way to an impulsive decline. Recent high extends to channel line resistance point. A slip and hold below   304.0 should be viewed as a strong clue to this development. Projection level comes in at 295.0-292.0. A hold below 293.0 has potential to extend to +/-265.0. Any advance from todays closing level will be met with channel line resistance at +/-309.0.

Soybean Oil

         Pre-opening rally fails to breach 31.80 level previously discussed. If contract is able to muster another run at it then I’d expect a violation follow thru to roughly 32.10. A close above 31.8 sets up further gains reaching for +/- 32.45. The inability to establish value above 31.80 should lean on contract. A slip below 31.04 has potential to unravel to 29.50 -29.00.