COMMENTARY:
The markets rebounded today led by beans and meal. The vegoil lost share today. I’m not consumed with the flat price direction today or tomorrow. The market will be volatile. Each day I see predictions. KEY REVERSAL, TOP, ETC. I am not being critical in any way at present. A technicians job is to tell the market what is happening daily. In my opinion though, at present, it is very difficult for a daily change to stand, due to the unknown. That is what we are looking at now in my opinion. The percentage of unknown relative to the high price and length the funds hold. What swan event can change the market. The fundamentals are not followed at present due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The planting unknowns remain, the demand unknowns remain intact. I also am asking questions. There are a few answers for what they are worth. The Chinese soy demand is in decline overall. The lack of vegoil availability at present will cause a shift in blending. This has yet to occur but will at some point. This will signal a shift in demand as well. The last thought, at what point will meat prices cut into demand from the retail level. So food and energy are huge components to our daily lives. This will ultimately have an effect on demand as well. I’m not predicting anything here today. I am attempting to assess the longer term risks that I do not think are dialed into price at present.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
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