COMMENTARY:
SOY: The soy bounced today. The crop ratings yesterday declined. This was a bit of a surprise. The market however struggled to hold on to the gains as the session went on. This was significant in my opinion. The complex was led by meal. In my opinion the market will start to look at the August weather potential. As I mentioned yesterday, it is my opinion that the weather, if beneficial, will add bean yield. This could be significant. This theory remains to be seen. It is my thought the highs are in, and the producer needs to look at opportunities. The outside markets are also more important than over the last year as I am looking at it today.
CORN: The Corn is at an important juncture. The decline in ratings yesterday may signal that the yields will not improve. In reality, perhaps a decline in yield is in order from the last govt update. This could leave the carry in a supportive phase. This does not mean that we need to rally. Rather, perhaps, the corn gains on beans on a relative basis. It is important, I believe, to remember that the Brazilian crop is still in decline. This does bode well for the US exports in the next 3-6 months. It is my thought the corn moves sideways to lower in a grinding fashion, with rallies presented as opportunities.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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