SOY
The soy complex traded both sides today. The overnight was higher. The market is focused on perceived dryness. It seems there were many good rain showers. The weather has moderated. There are pockets of dryness as always. The USDA reporting at present looks about right for conditions. This at present would leave the yield at the current level. The important news is yet to come this month. First the USDA report on Friday. In addition the bean acres are open to a reevaluation given the situation in the June report. I am not predicting anything at present. I make the comment as it is to be considered. The last issue will be the China demand. I question if something could come up after Pelosi trip. The demand is slowing globally. The South American acreage will be going up. The Argentinean govt now is working on ways to monetize the current large stocks and get them moving. My point here is there is much to consider. Exercise caution. Do not be surprised of short sharp moves in either direction. Rallies to me present opportunity.
CORN
The corn was lower. The weather moderated. This is viewed as slightly bearish. In addition the Black Sea exports are starting to move. This has feed grains in general on the defensive. The market will now look to the USDA report this week. The production number will be important. In addition the global supply scenario. The EU has a much reduced crop potentially opening a window for business. The corn has been on the cusp of being ample or getting a bit tight. In my opinion this has not changed. The report Friday will be important.
BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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