Soy & Corn Market Commentary

walshtradingGeneral Commentary, Grains


The sheer size of the market at present. Specifically what I mean as size. The value of the contract. The beans are worth in the nearby 75,000.00 dollars. This will continue to give big volatile moves. The risk is elevated accordingly. Take caution. Having said that, the beans rallied today as they were due a bounce after the recent liquidation. I ask myself to what end. The reality at present as I see it. The weather has shifted. It is probable that bushels may be added to production. This while the carry is larger than anticipated.  In addition the global numbers 101-102 mmt is the second largest on record. Where is China? They are slowing. It is my thought that the EU, the US, and China are all slowing. This is important as the demand is slowing as well. I believe the US in the long run will be in a secondary position as it relates to demand. The southern hemisphere with a normal crop will produce over 200 mmt. The Chinese are importing 90 mmt. As well as the production there slowly climbing. The point. It is my thought the bean market as well as Ag are at elevated levels at present. It is my thought we will move to a more realistic price in the near future. Look at rallies as opportunities to hedge. The products also will set highs at some point. The long run may present opportunities in the oil share again given the bio fuel usage. This will be on the come however as the Palm market remains deep discounts. Patience.


The corn traded both sides. The domestic carry is a bit friendly in my opinion. The global numbers at present are ample. The EU corn crop could offer demand opportunities depending how this all plays out. The corn has been a follower. I look for corn to present cheaper buying opportunities for the user. However this may be more of a grinding play lower. I have little thought on corn spreads at the moment as the market at present has some unknowns.


John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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