Soy Market Commentary

John WalshGeneral Commentary, Grains


The markets were fairly quiet today. The Meal oil had a correction. At present the oilshare stands at 35%. I am watching this closely. The veg oil market can be a bit more inelastic. The meaning here is that the global stocks remain supportive at present. The oil usage should stay strong through the year. The demand for soy has been good and should continue to be. The other side of the coin is meal. The meal market has rallied on tight soybeans. The price point now is a bit high in my opinion and will deter meal usage. To what extent remains to be seen. However, I put this out there for thought. The monthly crush continues at or near records. The domestic usage remains high. This remains a positive for beans. According to NOPA Jan was the second largest Jan crush on record. Fairly impressive. I am watching the oil share, it is my belief that dips in oil share present an opportunity. The next reports that will be significant are in March. The acreage will be watched closely. It is my thought with the bean corn ratio where it is, the bean acres can increase significantly.

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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