Pure Hedge – Livestock and Grain

Bill AllenGeneral Commentary


 The Livestock Markets were all higher today, while the Grain Markets are getting close to their monthly lows. August’24 Live Cattle were 3.67 ½ higher today and settled at 183.17 ½. Today’s high was 183.60 and that is also the new 1-month high. Today’s low was 180.35 and the 1-month low is 175.80. Since 5/14 August’24 Live Cattle are 7.05 higher or 4%. The Feeders were more than 5.00 higher at one point today. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 4.50 higher today and settled at 261.97 ½. Today’s high was 262.65 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 258.50 and the 1-month low is 250.80. Since 5/14 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 6.30 or almost 2 ½%. The Hogs managed to survive today. July’24 Lean Hogs were 87 ½ cents higher today and settled at 93.65. Today’s high was 94.32 ½ and the 1-month high is 103.10. Today’s low was 90.40 and that is also the new 1-month low. Since 5/14 July’24 Lean Hogs are 7.27 ½ lower or just over 7%. The Fats set a new 1-month high today in the August’24 contract. The Cattle Markets were able to shake off any of the recent H5N1 fears and headed much higher today. The cash trade has increased and the 5-area, 5-day weighted average is 189.24. The weekly sales for beef last week 12,000mt. That is down 17% from the week before, and down 28% from the average over the last four weeks. It was just yesterday, when August’24 Feeders were 3.00 lower at one point, before rallying and closing just a dime lower. Thats an impressive rally of more than 7.50 from yesterday’s lows. The Hogs looked like they were in trouble today after setting a new 1-month low but were able to rally over 3.00 off the lows, to settle 87 ½ cents higher for the day. Today’s low in July’24 Hogs was just 52 ½ cents above the 52-week low of 89.87 ½.

     The Grain Markets were all lower today, as they approach their 1-month lows. The Beans were almost a dime lower. July’24 Soybeans were 9 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1179 ¾. Today’s high was 1189 and the 1-month high is 1258 ¼. Today’s low was 1178 and the 1-month low is 1171. Since 5/14 July’24 Soybeans are 34 ¾ cents lower or almost 3%. The Corn broke as well today. July’24 Corn was 8 ½ cents lower today and settled at 450. Today’s high was 459 ½ and the 1-month high is 473 ¼. Today’s low was 448 and the 1-month low is 438 ¼. Since 5/14 July’24 Corn is 17 ½ cents lower or close to 4%. The Wheat Market was down as well. July’24 Wheat was 7 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 612 ¾. Today’s high was 622 ½ and the 1-month high is 720. Today’s low was 611 and the 1-month low is 605 ½. Since 5/14 July’24 Wheat is 59 ¾ cents lower or almost 9%. The Meal could not help the Beans or any of the Grains today. The Soybean Market was lower most of the day today but broke more late in the trading session. July’24 Soybeans were able to trade through 1180, and November’24 Beans pushed through 1150. July’24 Soybeans traded just 7 cents above the 1-month low of 1171 today. The Corn Market followed the Beans lower again and settled below all the moving averages. I believe the bottom of the Corn Market is near. July’24 Corn traded within 9 ¾ cents of the 1-month low of 438 ¼. The Wheat Market decided to swing lower today and traded just 5 ½ above the 1-month low of 605 ½. July’24 Wheat settled between the 100-Day and 200-Day moving averages. China has purchased more old crop Beans, but zero new crop. If that does not change, there will be a problem. It could be a prelude to a new trade/tariff war with China. I feel that the Corn Market has a great chance of rallying this summer and believe we will see 480 again soon, and then head higher. The Wheat Market is still crazy, and does what it wants to, but I can see that going up as well. I don’t see a way higher for the Beans, unless there is a drought. The 10-day forecast for warm weather is supposed to happen, it’s summer. I guess people realized that today. After all the wet weather this spring, the moisture levels should be just fine. The Acreage Report is at the end of the month on the 28th. I feel we will see more acres of Soybeans planted then were expected or reported, and we will see fewer acres of Corn. I believe the Beans will continue to break after that report, as long as the weather stay’s perfect. 



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Bill Allen

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