4/1/24
I said it would be a vicious break in the Cattle Markets. The move lower today should have your attention, and it’s not over. Do what you need to do to protect your downside exposure. I feel the Soybean Market will have a break like this shortly. Today June’24 Live Cattle was 4.92 ½ lower and settled at 175.32 ½. Today’s high was 181.12 ½ and the 1-month high is 186.62 ½. Today’s low was 174.15 and that is also the new 1-month low. Since 3/1 June’24 Live Cattle is 8.92 ½ lower or almost 5%. The Feeders got hit hard today. May’24 Feeder Cattle were 6.02 ½ lower today and settled at 242.67 ½. Today’s high was 251.30 and the 1-month high is 260.60. Today’s low and the new 1-month low is 240.85. Since 3/1 May’24 Feeder Cattle are 17.50 lower or more than 6 ½ %. The Hogs had a two dollar gain today. June’24 Lean Hogs were 2.05 higher today and settled at 103.50. Today’s low was 100.17 ½ and the 1-month low is 98.62 ½. Today’s high was 104.25 and that is also the 1-month and 52-week high as well. Since 3/1 June’24 Lean Hogs are 1.45 higher or almost 1 ½%. The Cattle Markets got smoked today, and I don’t believe it’s over yet. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets. My downside targets have shifted a little lower for the Fats and Feeders. My downside target levels in June’24 Live Cattle are 169.50, and then 162.75. The 162.75 number is the 52-week low. My downside target levels in Feeders do not look good. If the Feeders continue to break, my first downside target level for May’24 Feeder Cattle is 233.50 and then 221.00. The 52-week low in May’24 Feeder Cattle is 216.67 ½. The Grain Markets were all lower today. May’24 Soybeans were 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1185 ¾. Today’s high was 1201 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1226 ¾. Today’s low was 1181 ½ and the 1-month low is 1140 ¼. Since 3/1 May’24 Soybeans are 34 ¼ cents higher or almost 3%. The Corn Market was lower today as well. May’24 Corn was 6 ½ cents lower and settled at 435 ½. Today’s high was 442 and the 1-month high is 448. Today’s low was 432 ¼ and the 1-month low is 423 ¼. Since 3/1 May’24 Corn is 10 ¾ cents higher or 2 ½%. The Wheat Market also fell today. May’24 Wheat was 3 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 557. Today’s high was 562 ¾ and the 1-month high is 568 ½. Today’s low was 547 ¼ and the 1-month low is 523 ½. Since 3/1 May’24 Wheat is ¾ of a cent lower or fractionally lower. I am still Bearish the Soybean Market. I feel that the Soybean Market has the potential to break significantly from here. Downside target levels in May’24 Soybeans start at 1173 ½, then 1166 and then 1150. The current 1-month low is 1140 ¼ and the current 52-week low is 1128 ½*. The Corn Market could get dragged down here, but if it breaks down to the 1-month low of 423 ¼ it could be a good level to start buying it. The 52-week low is 408 ¾. The Wheat Market is still crazy, and if it breaks my first downside target level is 546 and then 540 ¾. If the May’24 Wheat rally’s, my upside targets are 568 ½ and then 574 ¼. There are reports of the spread of the Avian Bird Flu from dairy cattle to humans, but stories like that are often incorrect and rushed to print. I have seen ZERO reports of infected beef cattle.
-Bill
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Bill Allen
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