3/20/24
UPDATED
The Livestock Market were all lower today, along with the Corn and Wheat Markets, but the Soybeans shot higher. Hopefully the Beans continue to climb before Planting intentions are released. Today April’24 Live Cattle were 25 cents lower and settled at 187.80, just above today’s low of 187.40. The 1-month low is 184.47 ½. Today’s high was 188.57 ½ and the 1-month high is 190.27 ½. Since 2/20 April’24 Live Cattle is 57 ½ cents higher or about ¼%. The Feeders gave a little back. April’24 Feeder Cattle were 15 cents lower today and settled at 254.92 ½, just above today’s low of 254.32 ½. The 1-month low is 250.77 ½. Today’s high was 256.10, and the 1-month high is 260.800. Since 2/20 April’24 Feeder Cattle are 40 cents higher or almost ¼%. The Hogs dropped half a buck today. April’24 Lean Hogs were 52 ½ cents lower today and settled at 85.30, just above today’s low of 85.17 ½. The 1-month low is 83.15. Today’s high was 86.250 and the 1-month high is 88.90. Since 2/20 April’24 Lean Hogs are 37 ½ cents lower or about ½%. There is a Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon, and we will wait and see what that has to say. It’s no secret I am bearish, and I expect the cattle markets to break sharply. If they do break, the 100-day moving average for April’24 Live Cattle is 179.91, and the 50% retracement from the 13-week high/low is 180.67 ½. If the Feeders were to head lower, the April’24 Feeder Cattle 100-day moving average is 239.99, and the 50% retracement from the 13-week high/low is 243.65, and that is also the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low as well. I like the 240-245 level on the first move lower. Last week’s final slaughter numbers showed steer dressed weights had averaged 919lbs. That’s up 5 pounds from the week before. The weight gains over the last four weeks put the latest reading 20lbs over the same time frame last year. I would expect the Fats/Feeders spread to come in quickly. The Beans shot higher today ahead of the Planting Intentions Report next week. May’24 Soybeans were 24 cents higher today and settled at 1209 ½. Today’s high was 1211 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1217 ½. Today’s low was 1183 ½ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 1128 ½. Since 2/20 May’24 Soybeans are 26 cents higher or above 2%. Corn was fractionally lower today. May’24 Corn was ½ cent lower today and settled at 439, just below today’s high of 439 ½. The 1-month high is 445. Today’s low was 435 ½ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 408 ¾. Since 2/20 May’24 Corn is 6 ½ cents higher or 1 ½%. Wheat pulled back today. May’24 Wheat was 7 ½ cents lower today and settled at 545, in the middle of today’s trading range. Today’s high was 553 and the 1-month high is 594 ½. Today’s low was 537 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 523 ½. Since 2/20 May’24 Wheat is 34 ¼ cents lower or almost 6%. China’s Soybean imports from Brazil totaled 6.96mmt in January and February. That is a 211% increase from last year. During the same two-month period, U.S. Soybean shipments to China dropped to 4.96mmt, that’s down 48.9% from last year. China also imported 4.1mmt of Corn from Brazil in January and February, that’s a 178% increase from last year. Corn shipments from the U.S. totaled just over 760.000mt, down 67% from the same time last year. Planting intentions will be released on the 28th and I am expecting more Corn acres being switched to Soybeans. If this were to happen, I feel that Corn could rally, and if it gets through the 50-day moving average, of 443 ½ and the 1-month high of 445, it could head to the 450 level. The 50% retracement from the 13-week high/low is also 450 ¾. If the Soybeans are able to rally to the 1-month high of 1217 ½ and the 50% retracement from the 13-week high/low of 1232 ½, I feel those would be good levels to sell before the Planting Intentions Report. I feel it’s better to be short before that report. If the Soybeans break after the report, as I am expecting, I believe it will quickly head to the 1-month and 52-week low of 1128 ½, then slide lower from there. I feel that if the May’24 Wheat market were to rally, it would head toward the 580 level. The 50-day moving average is 582 and the 50% retracement from the 13-week high/low is 586 ¼. If it heads lower, I feel the target would be the 1-month and 52-week low of 523 ½.
-Bill
312-957-8079
I have market commentary and Option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM and on Barchart
Call for specific trade recommendations.
1-312-957-8079
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.