3/18/24
The Cattle and Wheat Markets had positive moves today, but how long can it last? April’24 Live Cattle were 1.325 higher today and settled at 188.575, just below today’s high of 188.750. The 1-month high is 190.275. Today’s low was 187.200 and the 1-month low is 184.475. Since 2/18 April’24 Live Cattle are 1.025 higher or just over ½%. The Feeders lead the way higher today. April’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.975 higher and settled at 255.100, just below today’s high of 255.250. The 1-month high is 260.800. Today’s low was 252.375 and the 1-month low is 250.775. Since 2/18 April’24 Feeder Cattle are 1.550 higher or over ½%. The Hogs were down slightly. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.10 lower today and settled at 86.825. Today’s high was 87.325 and the 1-month high is 88.900. Today’s low was 86.325 and the 1-month low is 83.150. Since 2/18 April’24 Lean Hogs are 1.600 higher or almost 2%. The Soybean Market slid lower today and the Wheat Market spiked higher. May’24 Soybeans were 10 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1187 ¾, just a penny above today’s low of 1186 ¾. The 1-month and 52-week low is 1128 ½. Today’s high was 1206 and the 1-month high is 1217 ½. Since 2/16 May’24 Soybeans are 11 ½ higher or almost 1%. Corn was slightly lower today. May’24 Corn was ¾ of a cent lower today and settled at 436. Today’s high was 440 ½ and the 1-month high is 445. Today’s low and the 52-week low is 408 ¾. Since 2/16 May’24 Corn is 6 ½ cents higher or about 1 ½%. The Wheat Market shot higher today. May’24 Wheat was 14 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 542 ¾, just off today’s high of 544. The 1-month high is 594 ¼. Today’s low was 523 ½ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 523 ½. Since 2/16 May’24 Wheat is 16 ¼ cents lower or almost 3%. The Cattle markets continued to climb today, but I feel that time is running out. I spoke with several producers today, and they confirmed the feedlot are still full and the weights are higher. They brought up that exports are awful, and imports are up, with three million head imported from Mexico. Obviously, the replacement costs make it hard to be profitable. If the packers decide to stop paying these prices, where do you think the market will head? In my opinion the price of beef is already too high, and will the consumer continue to pay these prices? I also see slowing demand in the coming months. Where do you think the risk is? On the upside or the downside? Smile and protect your downside exposure. The Soybean Market tried to rally again today, but it ran out of gas. May’24 Soybeans were 7 ¾ higher at one point, but turned around, and ended the day down 10 ½ cents. I believe there is still a possibility of a short-term rally, but that clock is ticking too. To be clear, I am still bearish, and would take advantage of any move higher, and continue to sell into strength before the planting intentions are released at the end of this month. I still feel that there will be more Soybeans planted than expected, and most of that acreage will come out of Corn. This could put the Corn Market in a position to rally if there are planting problems, or a drought here this summer. I would not want to wait for $17.00 Soybeans this summer. Once again, I recommend protecting your downside exposure.
-Bill
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