10/16/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed again today, with the Live Cattle Market once again trading to new all-time high, and the Hogs still looking dead. The December’25 Fats gained more than a dollar again today. December’25 Live Cattle were 1.10 higher today and settled at 247.87 ½. Today’s high was 248.30 and that is the new 1-month and contract high as well. Today’s low was 246.22 ½ and the 1-month low is 231.12 ½. Since 9/16 December’25 Live Cattle are 12.72 ½ higher or more than 5%. The November’25 Feeders traded slightly higher today. The November’25 Feeder Cattle were 27 ½ cents higher today and settled at 380.95. Today’s high was 382.50 and the 1-month and contract high is 382.80. Today’s low was 379.10 and the 1-month low is 342.12 ½. Since 9/16 November’25 Feeder Cattle are 31.55 higher or more than 9%. You might need to a stick and poke the Hogs to see if they are still alive. December’25 Lean Hogs were 1.00 lower today and settled 82.60. Today’s high was 83.60 and the 1-month high and contract high is 91.52 ½. Today’s low was 82.45 and that is the new 1-month low. Since 9/16 December’25 Lean Hogs are 5.62 ½ lower or more than 6%. The December’25 Live Cattle are higher for the 10th day in a row, and the November’25 Feeders are higher 9 out of the last 10 days, with yesterday’s 65 cent loss. What will happen to the Cattle Markets if the US Government reopens next week, and President Trump has the Southern Border reopened to Cattle from Mexico, because he was to lower the price of beef, which he had been talking about prior to the Government closing. The US Government closed on October 1st, and since then, December’25 Fats are $13.37 ½ higher, and November’25 Feeders are $23.35 higher. So, where is your Risk in the Cattle Markets, to the upside or the downside? How much higher can the overextended, and record setting Cattle Prices continue to go? What happens if you do not Hedge and the music stops? What happens if the Futures Market is locked limit down, for several days, with expanding limits? These are a few questions you should be asking yourself now, while you still have the opportunity to do something about it. Buying Puts or Put Spreads (Limited Risk) in the deferred months is not only prudent, but also necessary to mitigate your Risk. Everything could change next week, and I would not want to Risk a $10, $20, or $30 break or more, to make a few more dollars. A break of just 10% in the November’25 Feeders, off the Contract High is $38.28. Give me a call and let me show you several ways you can protect your bottom line. Locking in long term Feed and Fuel cost now, also seems to be a layup. The Hog Market has been in a downward spiral for a while now and has been lower 11 of the last 14 days. I still feel the Hogs have more downside coming, and I still like the 80.00 level. The 200-Day moving average is 80.32 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 79.23 ½. If you happen to buy more Cattle, make sure to hedge them, and I can show you how in the option markets.
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The need for a successful business to have a trading account is immeasurable. Look at the market movement in all markets over the last three months. Opening an account sometime in the future will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, and able to manage risk, you need to be proactive now and secure your access to markets in real time. You can be both Prepared and Patient at the same time. ***WATCH FOR TRADE DEAL NEWS***
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The Grain Markets were all higher today, with the Corn leading the way. November’25 Soybeans were 4 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1010 ¾. Today’s high was 1019 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1052 ¾. Today’s low was 1006 and the 1-month low is 993 ¾. Since 9/16 November’25 Soybeans are 39 cents lower or almost 4%. December’25 Corn bounced off the lows again today. December’25 Corn was 5 cents higher today and settled at 421 ¾. Today’s high was 423 ½ and the 1-month high is 431 ¼. Today’s low was 409 ¼ and the 1-month low is 409 ¼. Since 9/16 December’25 Corn is 7 ¾ cents lower or almost 2%. December’25 Wheat was 3 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 502 ½. Today’s high was 503 ¾ and the 1-month high is 535 ¾. Today’s low was 495 ¼ and the 1-month and contract low is 492 ¼. Since 9/16 December’25 Wheat is 31 ½ cents lower or almost 6%. There was talk this morning of a potential scenario, where a pause in the tariff war with China could occur, but again there were not many details. That could have put a bid in the Grain markets today. The Soybean Oil was strong this morning, but faded through the rest of the day, but I like this Market for the next six months and longer. India has agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, so that could be forecasting a trade Deal with India sometime soon, and that could be Bullish for the Grains as well. With the Cheap price of Corn, I would recommend locking in you feed costs now. December’25 Crude Oil has traded below 57.00 today and now would be a good time to lock in your fuel costs as well. The Stock Markets were lower again today, and we will see if that has any effect on the Livestock and Grain Markets tomorrow. If you have any questions for me, give me a call. Have a great night.
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The need for a successful business to have a trading account is immeasurable. Look at the market movement in all markets over the last three weeks. Opening an account sometime in the future will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, and able to manage risk, you need to be proactive now and secure your access to markets in real time. You can be both Prepared and Patient at the same time. WATCH FOR TRADE DEAL NEWS
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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December’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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December’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540 Chicago, Illinois 60606
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