9/23/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed today. The Fats were down almost a dollar and a half today. December’25 Live Cattle were 1.47 ½ lower today and settled at 238.75. Today’s high was 240.97 ½ and the 1-month and contract high are 243.57 ½. Today’s low was 238.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 230.07 ½. Since 8/22 December’25 Live Cattle are 40 cents lower or fractionally lower. The Feeders were almost a dollar higher today. The November’25 Feeder Cattle were 85 cents higher today and settled at 360.75. Today’s high was 363.77 ½ and the 1-month and contract high are 367.65. Today’s low was 359.00 and the 1-month low is 342.12 ½. Since 8/22 November’25 Feeder Cattle are 10 cents lower or fractionally lower. The Hogs had a good day, up almost two dollars. December’25 Hogs were 1.97 ½ higher today and settled at 90.72 ½. Today’s high was 90.85 and that is the new 1-month and contract high as well. Today’s low was 89.02 ½ and the 1-month low is 84.20. Since 8/22 December’25 Lean Hogs are 6.35 higher or more than 7%. The Cattle Market traded in different directions today, with the Fats heading lower. On the Highs today, December’25 Live Cattle traded to within 2.60 of the contract high of 243.57 ½. I am still looking for a 10% break off the contract high, and that would put the price at 219.21 ½, with the 100-Day moving average sitting at 220.64. November’25 Feeders closed higher today, but well below the highs of the day. The high trade of the day in November’25 Feeders was 363.77 ½ and that was 3.87 ½ from the contract high of 367.65. If the November’25 Feeders break 10% off the contract high, it would put the price at 330.88 ½. The Hogs rallied and made new contract highs today. I still feel the Lean Hogs are overpriced, as the Funds are near record long. I still like around the 80.00 level. a 10% break off the contract high would put the price at 81.65. The 100-Day moving average is 83.41, the 200-Day moving average is 296.70, and the 50% Retracement from the 52-week High/low is 78.90. We are still waiting to hear from the USDA about how they plan on increasing the cattle herd, extatically what it would entail, how it would affect price, and how it would affect US Ranchers. Whatever is done, it will be with the intention of making the price of beef cheaper, so… Who knows what will happen when the government gets involved. Futures prices could move substantially the rest of the week and beyond. You can pick your own direction, but with the government getting involved, now more than ever, I am picking the downside. Hedge Everything Now.
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The need for a successful business to have a trading account is immeasurable. Look at the market movement in all markets over the last three weeks. Opening an account sometime in the future will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, and able to manage risk, you need to be proactive now and secure your access to markets in real time. You can be both Prepared and Patient at the same time. ***WATCH FOR TRADE DEAL NEWS***
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The Grain Markets were all higher today, with the Wheat up almost a dime. The Soybeans caught a bid late today. November’25 Soybeans were 1 cent higher today and settled at 1012. Today’s high was 1015 ½ and the 1-month high is 1061 ¾. Today’s low was 1005 and that is the new 1-month and contract low. Since 8/22 November’25 Soybeans are 46 ½ cents lower or more than 4%. The Corn Market climbed all day and made a high for the day late in the trading session. December’25 Corn was 4 ½ cents higher today and settled at 426 ¼. Today’s high was 426 ½ and the 1-month high is 431 ¼. Today’s low was 418 ¾ and the 1-month low is 403 ½. Since 8/22 December’25 Corn is 14 ¾ cents higher or more than 3 ½ %. The Wheat Market looked strong again today. December’25 Wheat was 9 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 520 ½. Today’s high was 521 and the 1-month high is 535 ¾. Today’s low was 507 ¼ and that is the new 1-month and contract low. Since 8/22 December’25 Wheat is 6 ¾ cents lower or more than 1%. The Grains have been fading recently, with China only buying from Brazil and now Argentina, as they have lowered their export tax until October 31st. The Soybean and Corn yields have been cut again, and that helped today, but much more is needed. I still think we can see a surprise or two in the Grain Markets, but I would recommend buying the January’26 Soybeans and March’26 Corn and Wheat. There might not be enough time left to help the front months. The November’25 Soybeans made a new 1-month low at 1005 today but were able to bounce 7 cents off the new low and settle at 1012. If the yield is cut again or strong buying shows up, the November’25 contract could head back to the 1030 level, but I still prefer the January’26 contract month. The Corn yield estimates continue to slip and the December’25 Corn finished strong today settling ¼ of a cent below the day’s high and traded to within 5 cents of the 1-month high. December’25 Corn has now settled above the 100-Day moving average of 425 ¾, and if it catches a bid then the 440 level would be next, with the 200-Day moving average at 439 ¾, but I still prefer the March’26 Contract Month. The Wheat Market looked good again today and I feel we can much higher prices again soon. There could be more problems with Russia, and that could put lots of premium back into the Wheat Market. President Trump said today, when asked if he thinks NATO should shoot down Russian Planes over NATO territory, “Yes, I do”. I also saw reports this afternoon that President Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine and Russia, from Ukraine should give-up lands to end the war, to today saying “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option.” December’25 Wheat made a new Contract low today at 507 ¼, and I do not believe we will see it that cheap again for a while. There are several dates below that are important for the Grain Markets. Have a great night.
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IMPORTANT UPCOMING DATES BELOW
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The need for a successful business to have a trading account is immeasurable. Look at the market movement in all markets over the last three weeks. Opening an account sometime in the future will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, and able to manage risk, you need to be proactive now and secure your access to markets in real time. You can be both Prepared and Patient at the same time. WATCH FOR TRADE DEAL NEWS
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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December’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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December’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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