12/20/23
The Grain markets were lower, and the cattle markets were higher today. February’24 Live Cattle continued to rally today and had a gain of 1.525 and settled at 170.300, just below the sessions high of 170.425. The 1-month and 52-week low is 162.400. Since 11/20 February’24 Live Cattle are down 6.275 or over 3 ½%. March’24 Feeder Cattle also had a gain of 2.550 and settled at 225.750, just below today’s high of 226.000. The 1-month and 52-week low is 210.625. Since 11/20 March’24 Feeders are down 6.450 or almost 3%. The Hogs slipped a little lower today. February’24 Lean Hogs were 0.325 lower today and settled at 70.225, above the day’s low of 69.750. The 1-month and 52-week low is 65.800. Since 11/20 February’24 Hogs are 4.825 lower or almost 6 ½%. The Grain markets headed lower today. March’24 Soybeans fell 6 ¾ cents today and settled at 1315 ¾. Today’s low of 1311 ¼ is also the 1-month low. Since 11/20 March’24 Soybeans have dropped 67 ¾ cents today or just short of 5%. March’24 Corn was 3 cents lower today and settled at 469 ¾. Today’s low in March’24 Corn was 468 ¼, that’s also the 1-month and 52-week low as well. Since 11/20 March’24 Corn is down 17 ½ cents or about 3 ½%. The Wheat market dropped the most today. March’24 Wheat was down 12 ¾ cents today and settled at 610, just above today’s low of 609. The 1-month and 52-week low in March’24 Wheat is 556 ¼. Since 11/20 March’24 Wheat is 39 ¾ cents higher or just short of 7%. Now the fun part… The Cattle markets have climbed higher over the last week and a half, and there is a Cattle on Feed Report Friday. I have been Bearish the Cattle markets for a while now, and I still am. We will have to wait and see what the Cattle report has to say, but my opinion is still that Live Cattle will head toward the 145 level, and Feeders will head toward the 185 level. I have also been Bearish the Soybean Market for a while, and I thought the January’24 Beans wound expire at the $13.00 level (The Beans were $14.00 then). January’24 Soybeans already traded through the $13.00 level, but they also expire on Friday, and January’24 Soybean settled today at 1308 ¼. I think the Soybeans will start to break again next week, after January is off the board. I structured Option trades in March’24 Soybeans today, with the thought that the Beans will break 50 cents. I still believe we will see $11.50 Soybeans this Summer or Fall. I recommend hedging in July’24 Soybeans now.
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Bill Allen
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