2/9/24
It was a crazy week in the commodity markets. The Grains broke and the Livestock rallied. April’24 Live Cattle was 0.150 higher today and settled at 186.725, not far below today’s high of 187.475, which is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 185.825 and the 1-month low is 172.775. Since 1/9 April’24 Live Cattle are 13.125 higher or about 7 ½%. The Feeders also gained today. March’24 Feeder Cattle gained 0.300 today and settled at 247.150. Today’s high was 248.350 and the low was 245.925. The 1-month high is 249.150 and the 1-month low is 224.600. Since 1/9 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 22.275 higher or almost 10%. The Hogs were higher as well. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.800 higher today and settled at 81.150, not far above today’s low of 80.750. Today’s high was 82.400. The 1-month high is 85.925 and 1-month low is 76.725. Since 1/9 April’24 Lean Hogs are 2.650 higher or over 3%. The Grains continue to break as expected. March’24 Soybeans were 10 cents lower today and settled at 1183 ½, just two cents above today’s low of 1181 ½. Today’s high was 1198. The 1-month high is 1250 and the 1-month low is 1179 ¼. March’24 Soybeans settled just 38 ¼ cents from the 52-week low of 1145 ½. Since 1/9 March’24 Soybeans are 65 cents lower or over 5%. Corn continued to slide lower today. March’24 Corn was 4 ¼ lower today and settled at 429, just above today’s low of 428 ¼, which is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Today’s high was 437 and the 1-month high is 461 ¾. Since 1/9 March’24 Corn is 30 ¼ cents lower or about 6%. The Wheat Market closed positive today. March’24 Wheat was 8 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 596 ¾. Today’s high was 605 ½ and today’s low was 588. The 1-month high is 617 ¼ and the 1-month low is 573 ¼. Since 1/9 March’24 Wheat is 13 ¼ cents lower or over 2%. The Cattle markets have had a nice rally, but I believe that will end soon. The numbers might be lower, but the weights are up, and feed lots are full. I still feel that the Cattle Market will start to break again soon, and through the summer. The charts look very similar to 2014-2015. I highly recommend protecting your downside exposure. The WASDE Report was released yesterday, and there are a lot of Beans out there, and I believe lots of Beans will be planted here this year. The weather in South America has improved and will have a big crop again. I feel that another collapse in the Soybean Market is eminent. I feel the Corn Market will grind lower following the Soybeans. I feel that the $10.00 level in Soybeans is a real possibility this fall. I recommend protecting your downside in the Livestock and Grain Markets. I don’t want everything to break, but what happens if it does…
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 186.725 | 190C | 2.300 | $920 |
| 195C | 0.950 | $380 | |
| 200C | 0.375 | $150 | |
| ATM 186C 4.175 | ATM STRADDLE 7.650 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 183.975 | 190C | 2.800 | $1,120 |
| 195C | 1.500 | $600 | |
| 200C | 0.800 | $320 | |
| ATM 184C 5.375 | ATM STRADDLE 10.775 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 182.725 | 190C | 3.275 | $1310 |
| 195C | 1.925 | $770 | |
| 200C | 1.125 | $450 | |
| ATM 183C 6.200 | ATM STRADDLE 12.675 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 186.725 | 180P | 1.475 | $590 |
| 175P | 0.675 | $270 | |
| 170P | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 186P 3.475 | ATM STRADDLE 7.650 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 183.975 | 170P | 1.275 | $510 |
| 165P | 0.725 | $290 | |
| 160P | 0.425 | $170 | |
| ATM 184P 5.400 | ATM STRADDLE 10.775 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 182.725 | 170P | 2.150 | $860 |
| 160P | 0.850 | $340 | |
| 150P | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 183P 6.475 | ATM STRADDLE 12.675 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
OCTOBER’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 185.375 | 10% BULL MOVE | 203.912 | 200C | 2.125 |
| 185.375 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 166.837 | 168P | 1.925 |
| 185.375 | 20% BULL MOVE | 222.450 | 222C | 0.275 |
| 185.375 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 148.300 | 150P | 0.425 |
| 185.375 | 30% BULL MOVE | 240.987 | 240C | 0.100 |
| 185.375 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 129.762 | 130P | 0.075 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 247.150 | 250C | 3.375 | $1,587.50 |
| 255C | 1.775 | $887.50 | |
| 260C | 0.925 | $462.50 | |
| ATM 247C 4.775 | ATM STRADDLE 9.400 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 251.775 | 260C | 3.425 | $1,712.50 |
| 265C | 2.175 | $1,087.50 | |
| 270C | 1.350 | $675 | |
| ATM 252C 6.700 | ATM STRADDLE 13.625 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.675 | 260C | 6.600 | $3,300 |
| 270C | 3.275 | $1,637.50 | |
| 280C | 1.575 | $787.50 | |
| ATM 256C 8.450 | ATM STRADDLE 17.225 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 247.150 | 240P | 2.075 | $1,037.50 |
| 235P | 1.075 | $537.50 | |
| 230P | 0.550 | $275.00 | |
| ATM 247P 4.625 | ATM STRADDLE 9.400 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 251.775 | 240P | 2.650 | $1.325 |
| 235P | 1.675 | $837.50 | |
| 230P | 1.050 | $525 | |
| ATM 252P 6.925 | ATM STRADDLE 13.625 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 255.675 | 245P | 4.525 | $2,262.50 |
| 235P | 2.250 | $1,125 | |
| 225P | 1.050 | $525 | |
| ATM 256P 8.775 | ATM STRADDLE 17.225 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 269.450 | 10% BULL MOVE | 296.395 | 296C | 3.575 |
| 269.450 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 242.505 | 244P | 3.975 |
| 269.450 | 20% BULL MOVE | 323.340 | 322C | 1.050 |
| 269.450 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 215.560 | 216P | 0.850 |
| 269.450 | 30% BULL MOVE | 350.285 | 350C | 0.400 |
| 269.450 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 188.615 | 190P | 0.175 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 81.150 | 90C | 0.350 | $140 |
| 95C | 0.125 | $50 | |
| 100C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 83C 3.675 | ATM STRADDLE 7.100 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 95.000 | 106C | 0.850 | $340 |
| 116C | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 126C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 96C 4.050 | ATM STRADDLE 9.100 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 96.575 | 106C | 1.375 | $550 |
| 110C | 0.750 | $300 | |
| 116C | 0.325 | $130 | |
| ATM 96C 5.275 | ATM STRADDLE 9.975 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 81.150 | 75P | 1.050 | $420 |
| 70P | 0.450 | $180 | |
| 65P | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 83P 3.425 | ATM STRADDLE 7.100 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 95.000 | 86P | 1.625 | $650 |
| 80P | 0.800 | $320 | |
| 76P | 0.500 | $200 | |
| ATM 96P 5.050 | ATM STRADDLE 9.100 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 96.575 | 86P | 1.600 | $640 |
| 80P | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 76P | 0.525 | $210 | |
| ATM 96P 4.700 | ATM STRADDLE 9.975 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 96.450 | 10% BULL MOVE | 106.095 | 106C | 1.600 |
| 96.450 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 86.805 | 88P | 2.300 |
| 96.450 | 20% BULL MOVE | 115.740 | 114C | 0.525 |
| 96.450 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 77.160 | 78P | 0.800 |
| 96.450 | 30% BULL MOVE | 125.385 | 124C | 0.150 |
| 96.450 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 67.515 | 68P | 0.250 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
and Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM
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1-312-957-8079
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Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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Chicago, Illinois 60604
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