12/15/23
The Livestock and Grain Markets all closed higher today. February’24 Live Cattle gained 1.425 today and settled at 169.350, just below today’s high of 169.750. This week the February’24 Live Cattle gained 3.625 or over 2%. However, Since 11/15 February’24 Live Cattle are down 9.425 or over 5%. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.050 higher today and settled at 222.175, just below today’s high of 222.675. This week The Feeders were up 6.100 or almost 3%, but since 11/15 Feeders are down 11.325 or almost 5%. The Hogs continued to gain today. February’24 Lean Hogs gained 1.425 today and settled at 71.900, almost at the session high of 71.975. This week the Hog are up 2.925 or over 4%, and since 11/15 Hogs are down 3.00 or over 4%. The rally this week in the Livestock markets has not changed my market outlook. I still like the idea of selling into any strength in the Cattle Markets. I believe the Live Cattle will head lower to the 145-150 levels, and the Feeders will slide to the 180-185 level. I still believe this is still the right environment to hedge or put on option trades in the Cattle markets. Next year’s prices: August’24 Live Cattle 170.750, August’24 Feeder Cattle 242.975, August’24 Lean Hogs 94.875.
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| FEB’24 169.350 | 175C | 1.925 | $770 |
| 180C | 0.900 | $360 | |
| 185C | 0.425 | $170 | |
| ATM 169C 4.350 | ATM STRADDLE 8.350 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 172.850 | 180C | 3.175 | $1,270 |
| 185C | 1.925 | $770 | |
| 190C | 1.150 | $460 | |
| ATM 173C 6 | ATM STRADDLE 12.150 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 170.050 | 180C | 3.025 | $1,210 |
| 190C | 1.400 | $560 | |
| 200C | 0.675 | $270 | |
| ATM 170C 7.325 | ATM STRADDLE 14.600 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| FEB’24 169.350 | 160P | 1.250 | $500 |
| 155P | 0.600 | $240 | |
| 150P | 0.275 | $110 | |
| ATM 169P 4 | ATM STRADDLE 8.350 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 172.850 | 165P | 3.050 | $1,220 |
| 160P | 1.875 | $750 | |
| 155P | 1.125 | $450 | |
| ATM 173P 6.150 | ATM STRADDLE 12.150 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 170.050 | 160P | 3.500 | $1.400 |
| 150P | 1.500 | $600 | |
| 140P | 0.600 | $240 | |
| ATM 170P 7.275 | ATM STRADDLE 14.600 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 |
AUGUST’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 170.750 | 10% BULL MOVE | 187.825 | 186C | 2.775 |
| 170.750 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 153.675 | 154P | 2.475 |
| 170.750 | 20% BULL MOVE | 204.900 | 204C | 0.750 |
| 170.750 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 136.600 | 138P | 0.650 |
| 170.750 | 30% BULL MOVE | 221.975 | 200C | 0.975 |
| 170.750 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 119.525 | 120P | 0.125 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| JAN’24 220.900 | 225C | 2.950 | $1,475 |
| 230C | 1.600 | $800 | |
| 235C | 0.900 | $450 | |
| ATM 221C 4.600 | ATM STRADDLE 9.300 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 222.175 | 225C | 7.900 | $3,950 |
| 230C | 5.950 | $2,975 | |
| 235C | 4.400 | $2,200 | |
| ATM 222C 9.275 | ATM STRADDLE 18.375 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 226.575 | 230C | 9.100 | $4,550 |
| 240C | 5.550 | $2,775 | |
| 250C | 3.325 | $1,662.50 | |
| ATM 227C 10.450 | ATM STRADDLE 21.325 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| JAN’24 220.900 | 215P | 2.475 | $1,237.50 |
| 210P | 1.200 | $600 | |
| 205P | 0.625 | $312.50 | |
| ATM 221P 4.700 | ATM STRADDLE 9.300 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 222.175 | 210P | 4.375 | $2,187.50 |
| 205P | 3.100 | $1,550 | |
| 200P | 2.175 | $1,087.50 | |
| ATM 222P 9.100 | ATM STRADDLE 18.375 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 226.575 | 215P | 5.850 | $2,925 |
| 210P | 4.375 | $2,187.50 | |
| 205P | 3.225 | $1,612.50 | |
| ATM 227P 10.875 | ATM STRADDLE 21.325 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 242.975 | 10% BULL MOVE | 267.272 | 266C | 7.600 |
| 242.975 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 218.677 | 220P | 6.925 |
| 242.975 | 20% BULL MOVE | 291.570 | 290C | 3.500 |
| 242.975 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 194.380 | 196P | 2.375 |
| 242.975 | 30% BULL MOVE | 315.867 | 314C | 1.750 |
| 242.975 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 170.082 | 172P | 0.725 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| FEB’24 71.900 | 75C | 1.525 | $610 |
| 80C | 0.475 | $190 | |
| 85C | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 72C 2.825 | ATM STRADDLE 5.750 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 78.625 | 85C | 1.800 | $720 |
| 90C | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 95C | 0.425 | $170 | |
| ATM 79C 4.175 | ATM STRADDLE 8.725 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 93.200 | 100C | 2.825 | $1,130 |
| 110C | 0.900 | $360 | |
| 120C | 0.300 | $120 | |
| ATM 94C 5.350 | ATM STRADDLE 11.475 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| FEB’24 71.900 | 65P | 0.675 | $270 |
| 60P | 0.225 | $90 | |
| 55P | 0.075 | $30 | |
| ATM 72P 2.925 | ATM STRADDLE 5.750 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 78.625 | 70P | 1.375 | $550 |
| 65P | 0.675 | $270 | |
| 60P | 0.300 | $120 | |
| ATM 79P 4.550 | ATM STRADDLE 8.725 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 93.200 | 84P | 2.300 | $920 |
| 74P | 0.750 | $300 | |
| 64P | 0.275 | $110 | |
| ATM 94P 6.125 | ATM STRADDLE 11.475 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 94.875 | 10% BULL MOVE | 104.362 | 104C | 2.700 |
| 94.875 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 85.387 | 86P | 2.925 |
| 94.875 | 20% BULL MOVE | 113.850 | 112C | 1.200 |
| 94.875 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 75.900 | 76P | 1.100 |
| 94.875 | 30% BULL MOVE | 123.337 | 122C | 0.450 |
| 94.875 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 66.412 | 68P | 0.500 |
I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
and Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM
Call for specific trade recommendations.
1-312-957-8079
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Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
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