Pure Hedge – Grain

Bill Allen General Commentary

2/9/24

It was a crazy week in the commodity markets. The Grains broke and the Livestock rallied. April’24 Live Cattle was 0.150 higher today and settled at 186.725, not far below today’s high of 187.475, which is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 185.825 and the 1-month low is 172.775. Since 1/9 April’24 Live Cattle are 13.125 higher or about 7 ½%. The Feeders also gained today. March’24 Feeder Cattle gained 0.300 today and settled at 247.150. Today’s high was 248.350 and the low was 245.925. The 1-month high is 249.150 and the 1-month low is 224.600. Since 1/9 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 22.275 higher or almost 10%. The Hogs were higher as well. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.800 higher today and settled at 81.150, not far above today’s low of 80.750. Today’s high was 82.400. The 1-month high is 85.925 and 1-month low is 76.725. Since 1/9 April’24 Lean Hogs are 2.650 higher or over 3%. The Grains continue to break as expected. March’24 Soybeans were 10 cents lower today and settled at 1183 ½, just two cents above today’s low of 1181 ½. Today’s high was 1198. The 1-month high is 1250 and the 1-month low is 1179 ¼. March’24 Soybeans settled just 38 ¼ cents from the 52-week low of 1145 ½. Since 1/9 March’24 Soybeans are 65 cents lower or over 5%. Corn continued to slide lower today. March’24 Corn was 4 ¼ lower today and settled at 429, just above today’s low of 428 ¼, which is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Today’s high was 437 and the 1-month high is 461 ¾. Since 1/9 March’24 Corn is 30 ¼ cents lower or about 6%. The Wheat Market closed positive today. March’24 Wheat was 8 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 596 ¾. Today’s high was 605 ½ and today’s low was 588. The 1-month high is 617 ¼ and the 1-month low is 573 ¼. Since 1/9 March’24 Wheat is 13 ¼ cents lower or over 2%. The Cattle markets have had a nice rally, but I believe that will end soon. The numbers might be lower, but the weights are up, and feed lots are full. I still feel that the Cattle Market will start to break again soon, and through the summer. The charts look very similar to 2014-2015. I highly recommend protecting your downside exposure. The WASDE Report was released yesterday, and there are a lot of Beans out there, and I believe lots of Beans will be planted here this year. The weather in South America has improved and will have a big crop again. I feel that another collapse in the Soybean Market is eminent. I feel the Corn Market will grind lower following the Soybeans. I feel that the $10.00 level in Soybeans is a real possibility this fall. I recommend protecting your downside in the Livestock and Grain Markets. I don’t want everything to break, but what happens if it does…

-Bill

312-957-8079

SOYBEAN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 1183 1/21250C1$50
1300C1/4$12.50
1350C1/8$6.25
ATM 1180C 16 1/8ATM STRADDLE 28 3/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 11901250C14 7/8$743.75
 1300C6 5/8$331.25
 1350C3$150
ATM 1190C 36 1/8ATM STRADDLE 72 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 1199 3/41400C5 7/8$293.75
1500C2 3/8$118.75
1600C1 1/8$56.25
ATM 1200C 49 1/4ATM STRADDLE 98 3/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

SOYBEAN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 1183 1/21150P3 5/8$181.25
1100P1/2$25.00
1050P 1/8$6.25
ATM 1180P 12 5/8ATM STRADDLE 28 3/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 11901100P7 3/8$368.75
 1050P2 5/8$131.25
 1000P 1 1/8$56.25
ATM 1190C 36 1/8ATM STRADDLE 72 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 1199 3/41100P13 5/8$681.25
1000P2 5/8$131.25
900P3/4$37.50
ATM 1200P 49 1/2ATM STRADDLE 98 3/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

AUGUST’24 SOYBEAN

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVESTRIKE CURRENT PRICE
1192 10% BULL MOVE 1311 1/4 1300C 23 3/8
1192 10% BEAR MOVE 1072 3/4 1080P 16 5/8
1192 20% BULL MOVE 1430 3/8 1420C 8 1/8
1192 20% BEAR MOVE 953 5/8 960P 3
1192 30% BULL MOVE 1549 5/8 1540C 3 1/8
1192 30% BEAR MOVE 834 3/8 860P 1 1/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

CORN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 429440C1 3/4$87.50
450C1/4$25.00
500C1/8$6.25
ATM 430C 5ATM STRADDLE 11EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 441 1/2470C6 3/8$318.75
 500C2 3/8$118.75
 530C1 1/8$56.25
ATM 440C 16 5/8ATM STRADDLE 31 7/8EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 450 3/4500C8 5/8$431.25
550C3 3/8$468.75
600C1 5/8$81.25
ATM 450C 23 5/8ATM STRADDLE 46 1/2EXPIRES 6/21/24

CORN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 429410P7/8$43.75
400P3/8 $18.75
390P1/8$6.25
ATM 430P 6ATM STRADDLE 11EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 441 1/2400P2 7/8$143.75
 380P1 1/4$62.50
 360P5/8$31.25
ATM 440P 15 1/8ATM STRADDLE 31 7/8EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 450 3/4400P5$250
380P2 3/8$118 7.5
360P1 1/4$62.50
ATM 450P 22 7/8ATM STRADDLE 46 1/2EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 CORN

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
457 3/4 10% BULL MOVE 503 1/2 500C 18 5/8
457 3/4 10% BEAR MOVE 411 7/8 420P 15
457 3/4 20% BULL MOVE 549 3/8 540C 10 3/4
457 3/4 20% BEAR MOVE 366 1/4 370P 3 5/8
457 3/4 30% BULL MOVE 595 1/8 590C 5 3/4
457 3/4 30% BEAR MOVE 320 1/2 330P 1
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS

WHEAT CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 596 3/4 630C2 5/8$131.25
650C1 1/4$62.50
670C3/4$37.50
ATM 595C 12 1/2ATM STRADDLE 23 3/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 599 1/4650C12 1/2$625.00
 700C5 5/8$281.25
 750C2 7/8 $143.75
ATM 600C 28ATM STRADDLE 56 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 601 700C12 1/2$625
800C4 3/4$237.50
900C2 1/4$112.50
ATM 600C 38 5/8ATM STRADDLE 76 1/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

WHEAT PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 596 3/4 570P2 1/4$112.50
550P3/8$18.75
530P1/8$6.25
ATM 595P 10 7/8ATM STRADDLE 23 3/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 599 1/4550P8 3/8$418.75
 500P1 1/2$75.00
 450P1/4$12.50
ATM 600P 28 3/4ATM STRADDLE 56 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 601550P15 1/4$762.50
500P4 3/8$218.75
450P1 $50
ATM 600P 37 5/8ATM STRADDLE 76 1/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
608 3/4 10% BULL MOVE 669 5/8 660C 30 1/8
608 3/4 10% BEAR MOVE 547 7/8 550P 20
608 3/4 20% BULL MOVE 730 1/2 730C 16 1/2
608 3/4 20% BEAR MOVE 487 490P 5 7/8
608 3/4 30% BULL MOVE 791 3/8 790C 10 1/8
608 3/4 30% BEAR MOVE 426 1/8 430P 1 3/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.

I have Option Strike prices every Friday.

I have market commentary and Option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock

Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM 

Call for specific trade recommendations.

1-312-957-8079 

1.800.993.5449

Email me for free research. 

BAllen@walshtrading.com 

Bill Allen

Senior Account Executive

Direct:      1 312 957 8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

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