PURE HEDGE
| CATTLE |
In my opinion, the medium to short term outlook on the cattle market looks to be bearish. In review of the daily charts, December fat cattle had a runup to 152 and the attempt to retest the April high failed. Feeder Cattle futures has lost about $3 from the opening on Monday to the close on Friday in the trading week 9/12-9/16 and has hit certain retracement levels on the chart in the near term. One factor that will keep prices lower is the price of feed remains high and the second factor is the potential 100bpm by the Fed to try and curb inflation. In order to take full advantage of price discovery, we must keep an astute eye on potential slaughter numbers and monthly Cattle on Feed reports. Please take a look at the below listed puts and calls, so we can have a productive conversation about hedging your beef production using real examples. Also, select the link at the bottom to use our Cattle producers’ B/E calculator to have a more defined outlook at how you can protect your production. Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.
LIVE CATTLE– PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| OCT | |||
| 140 | .325 | $130 | |
| 138 | .200 | $180 | |
| 136 | .100 | $40 | |
| NOV | |||
| 140 | .600 | $240 | |
| 138 | .400 | $160 | |
| 136 | .200 | $200 | |
| DEC | |||
| 146 | 1.600 | $640 | |
| 144 | 1.250 | $500 | |
| 140 | .650 | $260 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
LIVE CATTLE– CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| OCT | |||
| 150 | .300 | $120 | |
| 148 | .725 | $290 | |
| 146 | .1.500 | $600 | |
| NOV | |||
| 150 | 3.175 | $1270 | |
| 148 | 4.500 | $1800 | |
| 146 | 6.100 | $2440 | |
| DEC | |||
| 156 | 1.375 | $550 | |
| 154 | 1.975 | $790 | |
| 152 | 2.950 | $1,180 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
FEEDER CATTLE–CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| OCT | |||
| 188 | .675 | $337.5 | |
| 190 | .475 | $237.5 | |
| 192 | .400 | $200 | |
| NOV | |||
| 188 | 1.800 | $900 | |
| 190 | 1.250 | $562.5 | |
| 192 | 1.050 | $525 | |
| JAN | |||
| 190 | 3.275 | $1637.5 | |
| 192 | 2.675 | $1337.5 | |
| 194 | 2.250 | $1125 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
FEEDER CATTLE–PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| OCT | |||
| 176 | 1.175 | $587.5 | |
| 178 | 2.000 | $1000 | |
| 180 | 2.875 | $1437.5 | |
| NOV | |||
| 180 | 3.000 | $1500 | |
| 182 | 3.950 | $1975 | |
| 184 | 4.950 | $2475 | |
| JAN | |||
| 180 | 4.400 | $2200 | |
| 182 | 5.275 | $2637.5 | |
| 184 | 5.975 | $2987.5 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
CATTLE PRODUCERS HEDGING CALCULATOR
C:\Users\pMcGinn\Documents\Cattle Producer calculator.xlsx
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.