John WalshGeneral Commentary

In looking at the markets in general. It appears to me that there is still a lack of understanding of how the global landscape is being shaped by the Trump administration. Regardless of how a individual may feel about the Trump policies. He is more than any President in recent memory someone who has followed through with his words. The nationalistic approach for a lack of a better word has strengthened US markets. Improved employment , and kept rates low. This has all fueled the longest expansion of memory,not to mention wealth creation. What it also has done IMO is halt the advances of China. Regardless of the trade deal, the Chinese growth has flattened. This may well be structural as many companies have moved around Asia. It appears the emporer has been defrocked a bit. The trade war showed that China really is no match to the US economic power because it is our demand fueling their growth. This realization I think will provide incentive and confidence to place business in other countries. What this also may do, and is not all positive , is slow the demand for commodities that the US supplies. This at a time when other countries , Brazil, Arg, Russia, Ukraine and others all are expanding production and then exports. The US will be in a bit more difficult position than the last 10-15 years, as our production costs have advanced significantly in this time frame. It is my belief that we ultimately will see a farm program within the next two years . In my opinion it will be a minimum payment type of program. Just like approx 15 years ago. The Chinese purchases will be important. The issue remains that there is a certain amount of demand, regardless of where it is purchased it wont necessarily prevent the global supplies from swelling. The task will be to create new demand. Food for thought.

Be Well