What a difference a few trading sessions can make. After printing multi- week highs last Friday and severely testing the long -term bears the ultra long bond triggered a downside breakout of a rising wedge on Monday and hasn’t looked back. News of higher sovereign supply, namely German bunds, started the avalanche off in the early morning hours and all …
Soy Complex
The soy complex is in a key area at present. The weather still is a concern in South America. however the sheer amount of beans in the world is massive. This ultimately will be the driving factor behind price movement. The meal and beans have been the weakest aspect of the complex of late with oil share rallying to 34.3 %. …
Coo Coo for Cocoa: March Cocoa Futures
Coo Coo for Cocoa: March Cocoa Futures The recent selloff in the cocoa futures from the highs set on December 10th appears to be the terminating 5th wave of the sequence. Currently I do not believe this wave to be complete and see more downward pressure in the short term. My targeted zone converges level comes in underneath …
US and South America Weather Update from WxRisk.com
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Livestock Levels
Live Cattle The February Live Cattle contract opened (121.85) above the Friday high (121.575) and stalled at resistance at the 21 DMA (121.95) on Monday, December 18. It was only able to touch the 21 DMA, as the high was at 121.95. It broke down hard from the high, trading down to 120.075, just above support at the 13 DMA …
Ag Commentary
The markets came under pressure after rains received this weekend. The temps were hot in some parts of Argentina however. This is still causing some concern as the dates are getting a bit late and planting still needs to get done on reasonable area in Argentina. The forecast for this weeks looks a bit drier. given today was Monday a …
Imminent Tax Cut Finally Spooks the Ultra Long Bond
After making multi week highs last Friday and severely testing those with a bearish long-term viewpoint the ultra long bond is down around 54 ticks today. The thirty years are down 32 ticks after holding under the 15420 resistance level a couple of different times in the last two weeks. Curve flatteners are taking a break and an extreme may …
Full Weather Report US and South America from WxRisk.com
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Kiss Goodbye? February Live Cattle
February Live Cattle After opening on Monday relatively unchanged the February live cattle market tweaked out a minor new low before chopping higher to finish at 121.025 up approximately 2.7 points for the week. To me the most noticeable observation is the week’s closing location. Currently we rest just below a double come back level on the …
Weekly Gold Report
It was a tale of two trades in gold and silver this week, pre and post Fed meeting.Gold touched a five-month low of $1,238.3 on Tuesday but recovered after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the third time this year. But markets in my view had priced in Wednesday’s rise and gold instead rose while the …