Live Cattle On Wednesday, April 11, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract failed to hold onto another early morning rally. The high was reached at 103.375. it continues to follow the 13 DMA (103.18) on its path down. It made the low at 101.20, below the 8 DMA (102.05) and settled below it at 101.575. A breakdown on Thursday below …
AG Review
The Market should switch its focus to the domestic weather and the planting intentions. There is much to consider here. There are many who think the planting acres will remain down. It seems difficult to believe with beans approaching $11.00 the US farmer wont plant Beans. This goes against most things I have seen in 32 years In this business. …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Tuesday, April 10, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract tested the 104.20 – 104.85 resistance range, reaching 104.20 for the high of the day. Once again resistance held and Live Cattle plummeted to the low, trading down to 101.675’ just above support at 101.55. It settled near the low at 102.10. A breakdown on Wednesday below the …
TIMBER: May Lumber Futures
May Lumber Futures I have spent some considerably time delving into the structural landscape of the lumber futures market. When employing top down analysis it is necessary to first address the long term dominant time-frame price charts. I began with the monthly which extends to 1972, the beginning of the contract’s life. I have managed to map out what I …
AG Overview
The USDA report was released. Looking at the numbers I would like to draw some comparisons. First, the soy carry was reduced 5 million bushels to 550. Two years ago we had a 197 carry. Interesting to note the price with almost 3* less carry than today was in the same range with a brief high of 12.00. Two years …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday, April 9, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract tested the 104.20 – 104.85 resistance range, reaching 104.60 for the high of the day. Once again resistance held and Live Cattle plummeted to the low, trading down to 102.10. It settled near the low at 102.50. A breakdown on Tuesday below the Monday low could see price …
Grain Spreads
Soy Complex It’s as if the tariff talk never occurred last week with this push higher in beans and we are back to trading weather events both at home and abroad along with demand. Speaking of demand,net sales for future shipment from last Thursdays export sales report came in at 1,133,000 MT for 2017/2018 and up noticeably from the previous …
The Wild Wild West: June Live Cattle
June Live Cattle Load up the six-shooters for this market which is whipping around like a rattlesnake on peyote. The daily ATR (average true range) as of last Friday reached 2.950, nearly a limit move, surpassing the contracts high established in the late summer of 2017. Following the clobbering they took to 102.050 on Friday the …
Grain Spreads
Soy Complex To say its been one of the more volatile weeks for beans would be an understatement. The weekly range was 76.6 cents basis May futures. Tariff talk, saber-rattling, weather both in north and South America have funds, specs, and hedgers spinning their wheels as volatility reigns. The backbone to me for the continued rallies from the dips in …
Ag Thoughts
I must confess I am a bit tired. I am viewing the market much different at present than the conventional pieces I read. My contention is we have plenty of everything. Beans especially. Most of what I read is laying out a bull stance. Which is fine and perhaps will be correct. The meal market has had a story based …