Bean Vol Trade

Scott Gecas General Commentary Leave a Comment

Bean Vol trade Going into the report tomorrow volatility is Jacked. Not just the report but several factors. 1st the report 2nd unemployment 3rd and most influential in my opinion is the rumor that China will take tariffs off over the weekend. All factors lead to HIGH volatility. If the RUMOR does materialize over the weekend Monday could see big …

AG TIME tough to overcome

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The soy broke today led by meal. The USDA will release updated stocks this friday. It is difficult in my thought , a way to see a real reduction in carry. The demand remains overstated. The Chinese numbers should continue to decline. This while they are culling animals. Up to 20% of the breeding stock ( hogs ) is being …

Grain Spreads: Shorts Pressing, Corn Dec 19/Dec20

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Major short in the grain market: Positioning below. Funds continue to sell rallies in the grain complex amid weak demand and excess supply. That can change moving forward with weather being the key reasons as we slowly move into Spring in the weeks to come. The catch up CFTC Commitment of Traders report (CoT) showed that Managed Money was short …

Bonds Vol Opp.

Scott Gecas General Commentary Leave a Comment

Bond Vol Put spread swap Volatility is elevated going into unemployment. The recent rally is bonds must be noted with light volume. To take advantage of the elevated volatility with a down side bias one could sell week 3 144/143 put spread for 13/64. Buy Apr week 1 144.5/143 put spread 31/64 for net 18/64 debit. Volatility should collapse after …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary Leave a Comment

  April Live Cattle held support at 128.10 for the second day in a row, making the low at the support level. It was a quiet trading session as the market traded to about the middle of Monday’s range and settled at 128.825. Cash traded on Monday at 205.00 on a dressed basis and 128.50 for live cattle. Volume is light …

Gold

Scott Gecas General Commentary Leave a Comment

Gold Even with the recent move lower in Gold price some say that the Gold is oversold. There have been recent developments to support the move lower. Positive trade war talks, strong US dollar. In my opinion based on the global production increased in most Gold producing countries. Australia’s production hit an all-time high of 317 breaking at 21 year …

Bond Follow up

Scott Gecas General Commentary Leave a Comment

Bond Follow up For the individuals that follow the bond trade posted yesterday . Volatility opportunity. If the opportunity did match the individuals risk parameters. With to move lower today in bonds one could take a partial successful position off ( if traded more than one contract) to be able to lock in hypothetical profit let the last piece run. …

Bullish Platinum Option Strategy

Peter Ori General Commentary Leave a Comment

Production of Platinum in 2017 rose +4.7% yr/yr to 200,000 kilograms remaining below 2006 high of 218,000 kilograms a record high. South Africa is the world’s largest producer of Platinum with 70.0% of world production in 2017, then Russia 10.5%, Zimbabwe 7.5%, Canada 6.0% and the U.S. at 2.0%. World production of Platinum group metals other than Platinum and Palladium in …

AG TIME – Everything Takes Time

John Walsh General Commentary Leave a Comment

The President concluded his meeting with Chairman Kim. The Chinese talks continue. All these things take time. It is important to keep that in perspective. ( talking to myself ) The soy was under pressure. The exports are way off. Even with a new round of purchases the carry is huge. The Chinese are now starting to admit openly that …

Bonds

Scott Gecas General Commentary Leave a Comment

Bonds Bond volatility is holding steady. Pakistan/India situation holding up volatility. Fed commenting on “shrinking the balance sheet” and throw in the Trump factor, trade war talks North Kore unemployment numbers next week another FOMC later in the month are very good reasons volatility remains high. Strong liquidation yesterday shaking out some longs one the break of 145.25 saw spike …