SOY COMPLEX Today was a fairly uneventful day when the dust settled. When we leave the month of March we will have a few answers to this puzzle. The USDA will release WASDE this Thursday and we will look at the USDA numbers. In play are the US carry and the production out of South America. The big question is …
Gold Testing Major Resistance
Gold fell on continued support for the U.S. dollar and a rally in the equity markets. The equity markets opened lower on tariff and Italian election fears but shook this off and rallied back into the afternoon. The U.S dollar had much the same experience starting lower and moving higher into afternoon trading. The yellow metal traded right around its …
The Five little Pigs: April Lean Hogs
April Lean hogs The Elliot wave theory claims trends begin and end in five wave. In the April Lean Hog daily price chart is appears that there is a five way pattern stemming from the highs of roughly 77.50 of early January. The apparent final wave of the sequence from last pullback to +/-72 also shows a five …
AG Wrap
The Markets saw a two sided trade today. The old crop soy remains supported by the Argentinian weather situation. There appears to be a few chances for rain in the future. The question now is what is the crop size. Estimates range in ARG 40-45mmt now. The Brazilian crop as high as 117 mmt. The yields apparently are huge. There …
Unstable: April Natural Gas
April Natural Gas When I study the structural evidence stemming from the lows seen in early last month one thing pops out to me and that is its non-impulsive nature. Simply put , it is dramatically sloppy. I therefore believe it is non-sustainable and most likely due to get turned back. The high today at 2.731 came in …
Live Cattle
Live Cattle The April Live Cattle contract broke down below lows from February 9th (122.80) and January 26th(122.025) on Tuesday, March 1, 2018. It traded below the 50 DMA (122.875) and found support just above the 100 DMA (121.975), making the session low at 122.325. It was able to recover and it made the session highs at the end of the …
Gold Settles at 2018 Lows and then Rallies
Gold fell today hitting weekly lows and settling at the lowest level since the end of 2017. After settlement, trading swung back in gold’s favor erasing the losses for the trading session. This was due largely from the tariffs announced by President Trump on aluminum and steel. The tariff news hit the U.S. Dollar dropping it into negative territory, with …
Farmers see KC wheat explode 50c
Good Mid-week Speculators, First it’s wild how when I take time off over decades that markets tend to move vertically (good, fast)and here we had end-of-month buying in KC wheat now up what? 50 cents from last week low in that overnight, down 1% cleaning as much as the HFT rats could stop out. KC $7.00? why not? But rocky soon. …
Hot and Dry = Higher
SOY – The weather continues dry in the key growing areas of ARG. This allowed meal and beans to move to new highs yet again today. The feature continues to be the large move in the Bean and Meal spreads july/nov, and july/dec. A couple thoughts. The markets are approaching key levels. 11.00 in beans and $400.00 in meal. I …
Live Cattle
Live Cattle The April Live Cattle contract opened higher (124.25) on Tuesday, February 27, 2018. It attempted an early rally, trading past resistance (124.70, 125.50), reaching the session high at 125.675. It broke down from here and traded to the low of the day (124.15). It ended the session at 124.20, creating a Gravestone Doji candlestick. After testing resistance levels …