As expected, Hawkish comments from USTR Lighthizer occurred thisweek in his testimony to the House Ways & Means Committee. The US Trade Representative head stated that its too early to predict the outcome of the US/China trade talks. However, significant progress has been scored. Moreover, China cannot “buy off” the US with massive amounts of US soybean purchases. In my …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs had a strong recovery today, bouncing back from Monday’s test of the February 20 low. It came within .425 of going up limit reaching 56.475 before pulling back at the close and settling at 55.725. Hogs are in consolidation mode again, trading between 56.60 and 52.25. A breakout above 56.60 could lead to a test of the …
AG TIME – Doesn’t Add Up
I will start the piece tonight with a disclaimer. The following are my own thoughts and perceptions. The reason behind the disclaimer. There are things going on that I just do not understand relative to an historic outlook based on my perceptions. Perceptions of what makes sense. The soy today was under pressure as were the products. The meal along …
Livestock Spreads: April/July Hogs
Why would hogs Move Higher? If they did, here is a spread to take advantage. Buy April19/Sell July 19. Maybe the best explanation is that its end of month profit taking combined with new rolls in the market first half of March, that could promote some short covering. Reasons for Rally? Lower slaughter numbers due to weather disruptions have slowed …
Gold
Gold After huge buying on 2/19 the gold trade gave back most of the move in recent days. There was two sided trade yesterday with light volume. With the current headline risk with trade war talks, US North Korea tension and Fed speaker Powell starting his two day speech. Then you have the Brexit situation. Volatility should be high if …
Livestock Report
August Feeder Cattle has formed a Wolfe Wave pattern and provides an opportunity for producers needing downside price protection. It is in the fifth wave of the pattern and price reached a high at 151.875 on February 12th, which is just below the fifth wave’s trend line at 151.975. A breakout above the trend line has strong resistance at 152.40 …
Grain Spreads: Lack of Specifics
News of US/China trade progress and a late Friday pledge by China to secure 10 MMTs of US soybeans lifted CBOT futures last night and early morning. That was as specific news for any US commodity so far.We cautioned in last week’s post that a lack of specifics regarding a trade deal and extensions of previous deadlines could be seen …
OIL
Oil has been strong despite bearish supply headlines. Larger inventories off set by record US exports. Positive tone with trade war talks is off set today by Trump’s Tweet “OPEC should relax and take it easy” pressuring price on the open today. Oil prices were supported last week after Mexican National Oil CO. reported lowest ever production. Lower rig counts …
AG TIME – I don’t think so
The week behind us as far as the AG markets go. The dispute and trade war will continue for a bit longer with President Trump saying progress has been made. There will be no escalation of Tariffs. This is all a positive. The Ag Outlook is releasing numbers. The expectation for the Bean acres is a reduction of 4 million …
Gold
Is the flight to safety trade back? Or was Tuesday’s explosion to the upside a one day event? After Yesterday’s sell off giving back all of Tuesdays move the skew flipped to the put side slightly. With the current volatility in Gold it is anyone’s guess. However this is a great chance for premium sellers. Options price in a 25$ …