Commentary
April Lean Hogs opened lower at 85.00, which was the session low as price surged and traded to the session high at 87.50. This was completed by 9:45 AM CST and the market pulled back to test Thursday’s high and then raced back to the high at the end of the session and settled at 87.45. The surge took price above and away from the confluence of (we’ll call them now) key levels from the declining 8-DMA now at 84.95, the 50-DMA now at 84.70, the 13-DMA now at 85.225 and resistance at 85.325 and the 100-DMA now at 85.60. The surge took price to and then above resistance at 87.10 and settlement was above resistance. This is a positive for the April contract. It looks like traders are latching on to the idea that the positive price advances in the cash and cutout prices which have been consistent, are now ready to make the seasonal jumps that usually occur as we head to grilling season and we should/ could… see the price advances accelerate. A failure from 87.10 could see price revisit support at the aforementioned key levels. If price can hold settlement, we could test resistance at 88.325. Resistance then comes in at 90.40.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 87.29 as of 03/09/2023.
The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 79.39 as of 03/08/2023.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 480,000, which is above last week’s 467,000 and last year’s 476,000. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 105,000, which is below last week’s 124,000 and above last year’s 98,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,497,000, which is below last week’s 2,512,000 and above last year’s 2,472,000.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, March 16, 2023, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
tested support at the
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.