Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
April Lean Hogs opened lower, up-ticked to the session high at 90.90 and then broke down to the session low at 89.625. It rebounded and settled at 90.55. Settlement was above support at 90.40. If price can hold settlement, a test of March 11 high at 91.70 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 92.375. A failure from 90.40 could see support at 88.325 tested. Support then comes in at 87.10.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 97.52 as of 3/15/2021.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 88.40 as of 3/11/2021.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000 which is above last week’s 489,000 and below last year’s 493,000.
April Feeder Cattle opened higher, down-ticked to the session low at 143.10 and then sprinted to the session high at 144.60. It grinded lower and reached the session low before recovering to settle at 143.925. Settlement was above resistance at 143.50. If price can break out above settlement, we could see resistance tested at 144.25. Resistance then comes in at 145.05. The February 25 high at 145.40 is next. A failure from 143.50 could see price re-test support at 142.40. Support then comes in at 140.775.
The Feeder Cattle Index declined and is at 133.93 as of 3/12/2021.
June Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the April contract volume. It opened lower, at the session low and rallied the remainder of the session, making the high at 122.20. It settled at 121.775. Settlement is just below resistance at 121.90 on the continuous chart. If price can trade above resistance, a test of resistance at 122.825 is possible. Resistance then comes in at 124.30. A failure from settlement could see support tested at 120.80. Support then comes in at 119.375. Traders are optimistic that cash prices will start rising as weights go down and stimulus checks and exports keep demand growing as cattle supply starts to decline.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts dropped 1.10 to 224.77 and select fell 2.22 to 218.05. The choice/ select spread widened to 6.72 and the load count was 103.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 113,000, which is below last week’s 121,000 and last year’s 118,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Monday negotiated cash trading has been at a standstill in all major feeding regions. Last week in the Southern Plains and Colorado live purchases traded at 114.00. In Nebraska live and dressed purchases trading from 113.00-114.00 and at 180.00, respectively. In the Western Cornbelt live and dressed purchases traded from 112.00-113.00 and 178.00-180.00, respectively.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, March 18, 2021 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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