Walsh Trading Daily Insights
Commentary
April Lean Hogs gap opened lower, made the session low at 86.20 and then grinded higher the remainder of the day making the session high at 87.70. It settled nearby at 87.30. Settlement was above the key level at 87.10. If price can hold settlement, a re-test of resistance at 88.325 is possible. A failure from 87.10 could see support at 85.375 tested.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 93.55 as of 3/05/2021.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 84.57 as of 3/04/2021.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 494,000 which is above last week’s 494,000 and last year’s 490,000.
April Feeder Cattle opened unchanged, traded to the session low at 138.625 and then reversed course, trading to the session high at 140.50. The high is just a bit below resistance at 140.775. This proved too tough for price as it pulled back then settled at 139.675. This just above the 50 DMA at 139.53. If price can hold settlement, we could see resistance re-tested at 140.775. Resistance then comes in at 142.40. A failure from the 50 DMA could see price re-test support at 138.95.
The Feeder Cattle Index declined and is at 133.92 as of 3/05/2021.
April Live Cattle opened lower and traded in another tight range. It made the low at 118.75 and the high at 119.75. It settled at 119.35. It is consolidating, with the range high at 120.00 and the low at 118.50. It is struggling at the rising 50 DMA (119.63) and the key level at 119.375. If price can trade above the 50 DMA, a test of resistance at 120.80 is possible. A failure from settlement could see support tested at 117.80.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.25 to 231.08 and select jumped 2.28 to 223.13. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 7.95 and the load count was 70.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 121,000, which is above last week’s 120,000 and below last year’s 123,000.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Monday negotiated cash trading has been mostly inactive on very light demand in the Western Cornbelt, and at a standstill in all other major feeding regions. Not enough purchases in any region for a full market trend. Last week in the Southern Plains live purchases traded at 114.00. In Nebraska, live purchases traded from 113.00-114.00 and dressed purchases traded at 180.00. In Colorado, live purchases traded from 113.00-114.00. In the Western Cornbelt live purchases traded from 112.00-114.00 and dressed purchases traded at 180.00.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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