Commentary: April Live Cattle gap opened lower as equity markets were once again tanking on continued coronavirus fears. Equity markets temporarily bounced leading to some closure of the gap, but a resumption of the decline sent cattle into a tailspin, eventually going down limit (briefly) at the end of the day. It settled at 105.75 down 2.90 from Thursday’s settlement. Feeder Cattle also suffered dropping 3.60 to settle the April contract at 130.50. Hogs were immune to the equity debacle, settling the April contract at 65.925 up .55 on the day. Cattle markets are trading with the equity markets, especially to the downside and not necessarily in accordance to its fundamental outlook. I think the markets need to see at least some stabilization in the equities before resuming its seasonal tendencies. The longer it remains tied to the outside markets the less likely a seasonal advance can take place as the seasonals turn negative into June, in my opinion. Resistance is at 107.30 and then 108.65. Support is at 104.85 – 104.20, 103.00 and then 101.65. Cash traded from 112.00 – 115.50 on a live basis and from 180.00 -182.00 on a dressed basis this week. Boxed Beef cutouts were higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice cutouts increased 0.22 to 207.47 and select was up 1.51 to 202.57. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 4.90 and the load count was 103. Slaughter was estimated to be 119,000. Saturday Slaughter is expected to be 38,000 bringing the weekly estimate up to 647,000. Last week’s slaughter was a healthy 627,000 and last year’s slaughter was 607,000.
Trade Suggestion(s):
N/A for Today
Risk/Reward:
Futures –
Options –
For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays and our next webinar will be on Thursday, March 12th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.