It’s not for the faint of heart! Talk of South American grain and beans priced to move into the USA, Southern producers talking about switching from cotton to corn and winter wheat getting a little tough which makes it more likely to work into the feeding channels gave the market a cause for pause today. Strap in because it’s going to be a wild ride this Summer and early Fall!
There’s no way to know what gets planted the next 10 days but the National Weather Service has projected that the eastern corn belt may start get a little drier and we know that farmers can and will get a lot in the ground given a sliver of a chance! Regardless, the USDA will release its acreage revisions on June 28 and winter wheat production on June 11. We will not get a surveyed yield on corn and beans until August 12. That’s a long time and the trade will be looking at other ways to garner information in the interim. We’ve learned this year that pushing the market too far below the cost of production before planting and pollination is hazardous to the bottom line. Smart end users used this aberration as an opportunity to take prudent extended coverage. Hopefully, producers have used the surge the past three weeks as an opportunity to start selling a portion of 2020 and 2021 production.
Plant, pollinate and getting past the first frost is what the corn market might be concerned with over the next 120 days. Wheat needs a lot of hot and dry over the next 6 weeks to get a quality crop. Beans are still able to withstand almost anything short of nuclear disaster yet, they have to get planted. Look at the weather maps as much as you can the next couple of months. Mother Nature is driving the bus!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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