April Lean Hogs opened unchanged and broke down to the low of the day at 85.65. This was just below the rising 13-DMA and price held support, reversing course and rallying the rest of the session to the high at 88.25. This is just below resistance at 88.325 and price dipped into the close and settled at 88.075. Cash prices continue to strengthen with cutouts surging Friday morning and holding most of its gains in the afternoon report. The cash index continues to creep higher giving bulls’ confidence the rally will continue. Slaughter is starting to come down and if weights don’t surge will show that hog supply is current and starting its decline. Remember, Easter comes early this year and the grocery industry will likely feature hams at price to sell instead of keeping price elevated and risk stagnant sales. This could power hogs into the spring and grilling season, keeping price moving higher, in my opinion. If futures can take out resistance, it could test the February 22 high at 88.90. Resistance then comes in at 90.40. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 87.10. Support then comes in at the rising 13-DMA.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 90.94 as of 02/29/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 80.15 as of 02/28/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 484,000, which is above last week’s 482,000 and last year’s 465,935. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 106,000, which is below last eek’s 136,000 and last year’s 126,875. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,549,000, which is below last week’s 2,578,000 and above last year’s 2,522,652.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 05, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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