April Lean Hogs opened lower and rallied to the session high at 81.725. It was right at resistance at 81.70 and resistance held leading to a reversal and it traded down to the session low at 80.35. This was just under support at 80.45 and it held and futures consolidated the rest of the session and settled at 81.125. Traders are trying to figure out the cash market as it is wavering with cutouts up and down and now the cash market starting to look toppy. February expires on Wednesday and it closed under the index which could mean traders are expecting cash to dip some more into expiration. This could keep the pressure on the April contract and limit its movement until Feb is out of the way. If price can overcome resistance at 81.70, it could test the declining 13-DMA now at 82.60. Resistance then comes in at 83.325. If price breaks down below 80.45, we could revisit support at 79.80. The declining 200-DMA is next at 79.05 and then 78.80.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 85.91 as of 02/09/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 73.60 as of 02/08/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 491,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 481,588.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, February 13, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
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Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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