Commentary
The grain trade will have all eyes on tomorrow’s USDA WASDE crop report, that will provide the trade’s best look to date at the size of this year’s summer crops, that have the possibility of significant market implications in my opinion. We’ve gone sideways in the corn for quite a few days. We’ve taken a lot of money off of the basis. Quarterly stock reports will come out Sept. 29. We are closer to harvest and the grain markets have gotten lethargic. The Mississippi River is lower, so the river bid is going to be poor. The Panama Canal is also suffering from drought. This in turn will make shipping by boat more expensive. Brazil corn basis continues to stalk the US market and weaker basis late last week puts the advantage back to Brazil. Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest advances to 94% complete this week, 6% ahead of the same week a year ago. The average trade guess for tomorrow’s corn yield comes in at 173.5 BPA, with ending stocks coming at 2.14 billion bushels, an ample carry if realized. Support for December 23 corn is 4.74 and then 4.66. A close under and its katy bar the door to 440. That level represents 35% lower on year and a major trendline from the April 2020 pandemic low to the August 2020 derecho low. Resistance is at 4.87. Consecutive closes over this level are needed to push the market to next resistance at 5.07. A close over 5.07 and its the gap at 5.25. See weekly continuous chart.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.