Grain Spreads: Short Covering

Sean Lusk General Commentary


March Chicago wheat rose 11 cents at $5.72 to close 2 cents off the session high. March KC wheat closed up 21 1/4 cents at $6.17 3/4. Prices closed near the session high after hitting a contract low early on. March Minneapolis wheat futures rose 13 1/2 cents to $7.13 1/4. Short covering was seen in the wheat futures markets today after Chicago hit a contract low on Monday and KC scored a contract low this morning. Funds are short approximately 119K in Chicago wheat, 47K in Kc and per CFTC last week about 27k in Minneapolis. Coming into month end, today’s rally could be seen as simple profit taking. USDA released its final weekly crop progress reportof the year on Monday afternoon. The winter wheat crop was 91% emerged as of November 26, which is 1 point above the 10-year average for the week. Of more importance it was the last condition report until April 1st as the crop moves into dormancy. Good to excellent conditions for the winter wheat crop are at 50 percent good to excellent which is 16 points better than last year at this time.  Wheat needs a story to sustain. A close over 6.04/07 is needed to turn higher technically, but lack of bullish news has made rallies a selling opportunity in my view by managed funds as they have defended their bearish positions successfully since late July. No new trade recs as of this report. 

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Sean Lusk

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