Commentary
Good rains fell over the weekend in the Dakotas and the northern half of Nebraska, into the bulk of Minnesota and Iowa, stretching into northern Illinois as well. Multiple systems this week could bring rain chances to the north early on, then further south later into the week and weekend; 6–10-day maps push the heaviest rains into the southern Plains and belt while 11–15-day outlooks are wetter throughout. We are supply side driven so crop ratings and forecasts are what trend and index following funds will be keying on. That said the forecasts can flip to dry in a hurry. However, once this crop becomes a known, the demand side of the ledger will be looked at. Demand for new crop beans and corn is dismal in my opinion currently. That could change later this year as heat and drought in China’s growing areas has become problematic. We will need to see if China comes back in for US origin in the months ahead due to current production issues there. Export inspections were released this morning for the week ending Thursday June 22nd. The amounts as follows had US ports exporting 7.5 million bushels of wheat, 5.2 million bushels of soybeans, 2.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and 21.4 million bushels of corn. Of that total, just 0.2 million bushels of soybeans and 2.4 million bushels of grain sorghum were destined for China, with no corn or wheat going to China. The low weekly soybean inspections continue a pattern that we’ve seen for some time since the large Brazilian crop hit the market, while the weekly corn shipments dropped off sharply over the past two weeks as new-crop Brazilian supplies become available.
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