Grain Spreads: Pre Report USDA Movement

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Trend and Index following funds who have amassed sizable shorts in corn and wheat took profits today while longs in beans most likely did the same. Surprises on the quarterly reports are often seen with either the on-farm stocks number being adjusted or a curve ball being thrown with prospective plantings thus giving the trade a surprise. No matter the reports finding , when the trade returns from the three day holiday weekend on Monday, funds will most likely forget tomorrows numbers and focus on weather and then demand. Multiple forecasts are showing a hot July in my view. The question going forward: Will the heat be accompanied by rain? Today’s crop progress report wasn’t much of an adjustment on the national average. The USDA gave us a slight one percent higher in the good to excellent category for corn and beans. However states in the Eastern belt including Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio to name a few saw significant jumps in the G/E category. These crops have defintely benefitted from recent rains. As the calendar turns to July, timely rains need to show up to keep conditions firm in my view because funds most likely won’t sell on drought. However while we have some dry spots here and there, crop conditions are near ideal so far in many grain belt states and todays condition report verifies it. Im not making any predictions here on the USDA number tomorrow. Longer term projections for corn and beans to the downside come in as follows on a percentage gain/loss for the year. 20 percent down for corn for 2020 is at 311.4. (Low for year has been 309.2) 25% down 293. 30% down is 274 . For Beans 10 percent down is 860. 15 percent down is 813. 20 percent down is 764. Planted estimates below.

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